I can't help but express disgust at irresponsible opinions that are expressed by some guests on the financial news channels. Over the past few weeks I have heard more than 1 guest express the opinion that rising rates, inflation, high oil prices, and rising deficits will not have an impact on the economy like they have in the past. In other words, "It's different this time".
Oh, no ! The last time I heard "It's different this time" was in 1999 when valuations for tech and internet stocks were through the stratosphere. Those of us who questioned the sustainability of those valuations were label as investors who "just don't get it". One thing I know for sure is this; its not different this time, and utimately higher interest rates, inflation, and oil prices will eventually cause economic pain.
In the short run, I am expecting a Q2 rally to begin in the month of April. Today's selloff began when a Goldman Sachs analyst said he expects oil to spike to $105 a barrell. We all know that demand is increasing world wide, and crude prices could go well beyond anyone's wildest expectations. We don't need an analyst from an investment bank to tell us that. These anal(ysts) should stick to sucking up to oil companies for investment banking business and leave us little guys alone. We really don't need their opinions.
The other things irratating the markets today was mixed picture of the jobs market. The 110,000 jobs added in March was half of the roughly 220,000 jobs that economists had forecast before the report was released. Economists believe that the lackluster performance in payrolls in March reflected businesses turning more cautious in the wake of high energy prices. I have been warning you about this for quite sometime.
So, we will continue to keep our eye on the ball, and don't beleive these idiot's who try to convince you that "It's different this time".
