No one likes a pessismist, but I have to admit there is not much to be bullish about. In fact, I think its more important to use the old adage "the return of your money is more important than the return on your money" right now.
Before I get started, I want to announce that I will be issuing my newsletter quarterly insted of monthly. The reason for this is very simple. #1- I am finding that by time I finish an issue, the news is old and the timing of idea's is too late. I will be able to give you more timely information by including the information in my Journal. That said, I will be discussing investment idea's more thoroughly in the Journal. And,as always, my investment blog is for informational purposes only.
As I have said before, I believe we will have an impressive rally before the market reverts back to its bear market pattern. The catalyst for the rally could come from announcements fron the Energy Department, the Fed, or both. In fact, US Secretary of Energy Bodman announced that the planned fill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be completed in August.
Leaders from the Group of Eight industrialized nations, which represents two-thirds of the world economy, said in a statement in London last weekend rising oil prices are a ``significant concern.'' The International Monetary Fund forecasts world economic growth will slow to 4.3 percent in 2005 from 5.1 percent in 2004, in part because of higher energy costs.
As the movers and shakers from around the globe try to figure out how to deal with the energy crisis, a temporary, but obvious solution came to mind. Until they can figure out how to handle the energy crisis, what better way to slow oil demand than to create a world wide recession. Lets face the facts, our options are limited.
While the news media is focusing on the Michael Jackson verdict, the U.S is facing a huge budget and trade deficit, a weak dollar, high energy prices, American jobs shipped overseas, skyrocketing heathcare costs, and a war in Iraq where close to 1700 American's have died and 10,000 have been wounded. Heck, even Pat Tillman's (former football star killed in Afghanistan) parents are mad because the Army was exploiting his heroism for recruitment purposes, and never mentioned (initially)he was killed by friendly fire. This is not a pretty picture.
I feel I have a little room to express concern over the events taking place in Iraq since my stepson was a member of the U.S. Army's 782nd Main Support Battalion's 82nd Airborne Division in Fallujah. He was awarded the Army Commendation Medal with a Bronze V for valor after pulling four wounded soldiers to safety while under enemy fire. The three-vehicle convoy he was in was returning to the air base from Baghdad when the lead Humvee was ambushed by a roadside bomb while attempting to cross the last bridge out of Fallujah. Luckily, he made it.
We will be monitoring the markets very carefully over the next few weeks.
