By now you have probably read that September's consumer confidence dropped to 86.6 from 105.5 in August. Come on now, did anyone in their right minds really think that consumers were going to be optimistic after 5 days of getting pounded by the media about hurricanes and the price of oil?
Oh, the power of the media... Sure a CAT 5 hurricane can really ruin someone's day, but we along the Gulf Coast have seen CAT 4's and 5's eventually come ashore as CAT 1's, 2's, and 3's. The media's mantra is scaring the hell out of folks to attract eyeballs for ratings. While doing so, they cause mass panic, and yes, sometimes unnecessary deaths.
Also released today were new home sales which fell to a 1.237 million annual rate in August from a 1.373 million rate in July. Is this really a shock? I have been warning you for months that a real estate bubble was creating a NASDAQ II mentality right in front of our noses. Despite all of this extreme pessimism, why hasn't the market completely collapsed? Does the market know something we don't? I think it does.
If you haven't watched the movie "Wall Street" I encourage you to do so. I'd like to borrow a line from the movie from a large and powerful investor (Sir Larry). 鏑et痴 carry him for a few rounds before he drops".
That being said, what do you think a drop in oil to the $50 per barrel mark will do to consumer confidence by year's end? Changes the scenery a little doesn't it?
Wall Street is not going to telegraph its moves. In fact, they are going to carry you for a few rounds before they pull the plug. Sure, we may get some scary moments in October, but the table is set for a dramatic turn of (temporary) events.
I don't have any idea's of substance to mention today. If anyone happens to know a pubic company that sells shingles to Home Depot or Lowe痴, please pass it a long. Home Depot buys their shingles from GAF Materials Corp, but I could not find a public listing.
The Media & New Orleans
It is absolutely terrible what the innocent victims in New Orleans had to go through during and after Katrina. There are many wonderful, law abiding citizens in the Crescent City. That being said, parts of New Orleans are very dangerous.
A friend of mine took his child to a soccer tournament in New Orleans and made a wrong turn into the bad part of town. He was driving a Cadillac Escalade, and for kicks, someone rammed his vehicle for fun.
Just this past weekend, we spoke with some friends from Alexandria, LA. They said that approximately 30,000 displaced refugees were in the city. They went to the local University to watch a football game, and the University was nice enough to allow some of the refugees into the game free of charge, and gave them food. In turn, the refugees were unruly; some were drunk and causing havoc. Why is this not on the national news?
Millions of kind hearted Americans are donating money to help the victims of the recent hurricanes. Be sure the money you donate goes to the proper place. New Orleans officials are not known for their honesty.
