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Viewer Comments

Here is a comment from Andy on my BOYA discovery:


That IS funny. I never bothered to look up the meaning, but I'm sure glad you did.


Not only is it funny, but what do you think the CNBC people are thinking right about now. I sent an e-mail to them too. I値l be watching Cramer for his reaction.


Here痴 a comment from David after viewing my explanation of 徹ptions� under the 迭eports� section of the website:


Thank you for this very clear explanation.


I encourage all of you to take a good look through the Reports I have written. You値l save yourselves a lot of $$$


A real estate question from Courtney


I've managed to save up roughly $88232 in my bank account, but I'm not sure if I should buy a house or not. Do you think the market is stable or do you think that home prices will decrease by a lot?

If you have been following my comments, I believe the real estate market is almost as overvalued as the NASDAQ was in 2000. This is not to say that the Fed will not attempt to protect the real estate bubble from completely falling apart at the seams however.

So many people have bet their financial futures on their homes, and the lines of credit tied to their homes, that a huge collapse would be devastating for the economy. This is not to say it cannot happen. No one thought the NASDAQ would fall as much as it did either.

The problem that buyers face is this. When interest rates fall, home prices rise. When rates go up, home prices fall. In my opinion, the best time to buy a home is when interest rates begin declining during an economic slowdown, or recession.

What is disturbing about real estate right now is homebuilders have announced record sales of new homes. This has been going on for quite sometime. If they are selling a record number of homes, what is happening to the homes these people are selling to buy the new ones?

You can稚 tell me that month in and month out, the buyers of these new homes, or the buyers of the existing homes, are bought by first time home buyers. There are not that many eligible first time home buyers in the country.

What I think will happen is supply will eventually outstrip demand. I have seen reports that 20% of new home purchases were made by speculators looking to flip their real estate at higher prices. If this happens, you will see a glut of new or existing homes on the market, interest rates will drop, and despite a drop in rates home prices will remain down due to oversupply.

In time, (10-15 years) this oversupply problem will correct itself as older existing homes fall under re-zoning , and are torn down to build commercial real estate. This process could take a long time. The bottom-line is you cannot build more homes if you don稚 have the people to occupy them.

In your particular situation, you need to assess your earnings power, debt level, and re-payment capability. Remember, in addition to your mortgage payment, your payments will be higher because property taxes and insurance will be added to the payment. In addition, if you do not put 20% down, the bank will make you purchase insurance on yourself in case you default on the loan.

Don稚 let the bank try and talk you into interest only or adjustable rate loans. Find a rate you are comfortable with, and a payment you can afford.

Lastly, keep plenty of cash for a rainy day, and don稚 put that cash with the same bank that holds your mortgage. If you can, keep it a secret.

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.

Comments (1)

alan:

Courtney, I would chart the number of homes for sale in your area monthly. Also, I would track the prices of these homes for more insight. And finally, if new homes are listed for sale at the same price as equivalent used homes for sale, then you have a real buyer's market.

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