Well, the good news is oil is selling off, the bad news is, the market doesn't care. My best guess is another day or two of declines in the energy patch will set the stage for a rally after Christmas.

Basically, traders are snake bit. Just when they thought oil prices were going to test the $50 mark, prices turned and head back to $60. The bottom-line is a trader trying to make a big bet on a year-end rally, is not going to do so until they see a sustainable break to the downside on energy.

Here are the recent numbers:

Crude $58.00 -1.99
Gasoline $1.56 -.05
Heating Oil $1.73 -.05
Natural Gas 13.60 -.18

Here are how the big boys (Commercial Traders) in New York lined up in the futures pits:

CRUDE OIL: LONG 540,058/ SHORT 496,329
UNLEADED GASOLINE: LONG 83,459/ SHORT 106,665
HEATING OIL: LONG 108,908/ SHORT 111,101
NATURAL GAS: LONG 247,181/ SHORT 249,528

Based on these futures positions, there is no way of knowing which way energy prices will go. Flip a coin. The same can be said for the year-end rally, January Effect, or whatever you want to call it.

This is why I keep saying that playing what could be the last rally is at best speculative.