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Google & The Market

The shares of internet search engine Google, has been the most widely touted stock of the year. Its market cap has already surpassed many well know companies who actually produce and sell something. It is also mind boggling to see the number of Wall Street investment (banks) firms that have religiously raised their price targets on the stock. Of course, being the inquisitive person that I am, I want to know why?

I just finished reading the December 5th issue of Business Week, which featured Google on the front cover. An alert contrarian knows when you see magazine covers touting, or condemning a company, the best course of action is to play the opposing side. This contrarian attitude usually pays off 12 months down the road.

As I read the article, I was stunned to see that the company's market cap had surpassed $120 billion dollars. This is a clear case of a stock that is incredibly over hyped. With over $120 billion market cap, this places Google痴 valuation much higher than "real" companies that actually do something. Here is a partial list of companies whose market cap is less than Google's (Source: Yahoo Finance):

3M-$59.5b, Abbott Labs-$59.2b, Boeing-$55.8b, BellSouth-$50.5b, ConocoPhillips-$$85b, Hewlett Packard-$85.8b, Home Depot-$89.9b, Pepsi-$99.2b, Texas Instruments-$51.5b, Time Warner-$83.3b, UPS-$86.6b, Verizon-$88.9b, Disney-$50.4b, Wachovia-$84.5b

So, do I think Google is over hyped and overvalued? You bet your sweet adams apple I do. This is one of the most outlandish cases of over hyping I have ever seen. So, now we must ask ourselves the $8 billion dollar question. Why are some Wall Street firms continually pumping the stock?

The answer is...$8 billion dollars. Yes, according to Business Week, Google is holding $8 billion dollars in cash, and investment bankers are falling over one another to sell Google " mergers, acquisitions, financing, and strategic advice". Now, if you are an investment bank trying to get Google's business, the best thing you can do is rate the stock a buy, and the worst thing you can do is anything else.

This week alone, Google insiders have sold a grand total of $47,131,693 worth of stock. Business Week reports that Google shares turned 5 people into billionaire's, and 1,000 people into millionaires. They also went on to say that "one in five staffers is a millionaire, at least on paper".

In conclusion, if you believe the hype, and also believe that this internet search engine is worth more than the companies I listed above, more power to you. But before you begin to throw (more?) you池e hard earned money into this stock, remember this disclaimer that is posted on most investment banks research reports:

(Brokerage Firm)"does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions."

The Market:

I look at several sources of technical data. On Wednesday, of this week I gave you some technical comments from Bruce Bittles, the Chief Investment Strategist at Robert W. Baird. What I usually try to do is get several opinions, condense them, and then add my own take to the research. This time around I'll just give you the research as I get it, and then tell you how I feel.

Earlier in the week, I mentioned Peter Lee, who is the Chief Technical Analyst at UBS. Here are his latest technical readings on the market:

S&P 500:

1) Pleased with breakout at 1250. Moderately overbought near term. May experience profit taking to 1240-1250, secondary support 1200-1220.

2) Maintaining support above 1250 would be very bullish for S&P going forward. Technical projections to mid 1300's, 1320-1350.

DJIA:

1) Minor breakout above 10,750. Next level of overhead resistance at 11,000.

2) Average is moderately overbought at these levels. Support at 10,700-10,750, secondary support 10,200-10,400.

3) Dow's action looks similar to the secular bear of 1966-1982. Near term cyclical trend remains up.

NASDAQ:

1) Rally efforts have lagged slightly behind S&P and Dow. Still believe index will partake in year-end rally, and Q1 2006.

2) Support at 2200-2220, secondary support 2000.

My Take:

If you must participate in the remainder of the year-end rally, I would use the SPY, DIA, and QQQQ's on a pullback to initial support areas. If the indexes reach secondary support levels, add to positions.

For more aggressive traders, you can buy call options on the SPX, DJI, or IXIC indexes. If you do so, buy calls 3-4 months out to mitigate time premium erosion.

Have a great weekend, and an early Merry Christmas.

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.

Comments (1)

WJM:

As an Internet Search Engine only, you are right about Google, but don't overlook Web 2.0

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