The trade deficit jumped to an all time high in October, and this basically goes to the heart of a minor piece I put out on Wal-Mart yesterday. I値l get to that in a moment.
The Commerce Department announced that the trade gap between imports and exports rose to $68.9 billion in October from the prior record of $66 billion in September.
On December the 9th (撤R Campaign Fueling Trade Deficit & Lost Jobs�) I wrote a piece on the closing of U.S. manufacturing plants and massive job losses caused by shipping jobs overseas. This goes to the heart of my Wal-Mart argument.
Here is a comment I received yesterday on a few remarks I made about Wal-Mart. I知 sorry I did not make myself clear. I値l try to give you a more detailed explanation below.
笛ohn....I am not an apologist for WalMarts, but I couldn't disagree with your comment more about politicians putting pressure on Wal-Mart in the future. You have been reading too much of the liberal press. Think about it, can you see Ted Kennedy blasting Wal-Mart? I don't think so. Kennedy has a constituency of poorer families and seniors on fixed income who frequent WalMarts, not for political reasons, but because they can purchase stuff there cheaper. An example is Vermont, which severely restricts Wal-Mart. However, the Vermonters living close to New York fill the Wal-Mart parking lot on the weekend. The parking lot is literally filled with green license (Vermont) plates. Wal-Mart may go the way of Woolworths, W.T. Grant and Montgomery Ward, but it will be because they mismanage their business, not because of what the politicians do�.
I agree that politicians will not be the ones that will begin to pressure Wal-Mart, or any other outsourcing company. After all, why should they? They were the ones who voted to ship U.S. jobs to other countries. I feel if any political pressure begins, it will start with workers who have had their wages cut, or seen their jobs disappear. Of course, the only way this can happen is if the American people get angry enough. Whether they will or not is the big question.
If the economy gets bad enough, and the American people get angry enough, the backlash against companies who import foreign goods could be huge. In my December 9th journal, I quoted Paul Craig Roberts :
"The October 28 issue of Manufacturing & Technology News reports that Procter & Gamble, General Electric, Ford, Kimberly Clark, Caterpillar, Goodyear, General Motors, USG, Honeywell, Alcoa and Kodak combined exported 269,600 containers of goods in 2004. Wal-Mart alone imported 576,000 containers of goods".
The loss of good paying jobs is a direct result of companies like Wal-Mart and others seeking cheaper labor to make their goods. They have their products made overseas, ship them back to the U.S., and then expect the people who lost their jobs to buy products made by the people who took their jobs.
If Americans begin to feel the same kind of pain with their job situations as they did when gasoline prices were above $3.00/ gallon, you may see someone begin to lead a nationwide boycott against foreign made goods. This would cripple (temporarily) a company like Wal-Mart.
If a political backlash does occur, it will begin with the American people. Of course this cannot be done without someone who is willing to step up and lead the charge. But if things get bad enough, the leader who calls for a boycott against companies who export jobs, and import goods, will eventually get a massive amount of press and airtime.
Once politicians see that the American people are angry, and serious about defending their jobs, you will see them jump on the bandwagon to capture votes.
I know the possibility of a boycott sound remote, and it probably is. But the rumblings of the lava beneath the volcano are beginning to rumble. All I know is there are a lot of very angry and hurt Americans out there. They are tired of seeing their jobs disappear, pay checks shrink, costs rise, and their dreams of financial independence get shipped away to other countries.
All I attempt to do is look at possibilities, as well as probabilities from an investment prospective. I do not try to get involved in political debates and rhetoric. So, when I analyze any company, I have got to look beyond the numbers to determine exactly how much money I am willing to invest given a company痴 current situation.


Comments (2)
Wall street and the politicians said that the global economy was good for the US. We would keep and add to the upper end, high paying jobs and ship the low end jobs to third world countries. Unfortunately, it didn't happen that way. We have had a massive transfer of wealth and jobs to other countries especially in the last 5 years. Starting 20 years ago and going parabolic 5 years ago, we have had a concentration of wealth in this country with consequent lower interest rates. This was good for Wall Street and the bondholders, but not for the country. The only thing that is preventing this loss of the middle class from being plainly seen is the housing bubble. But if it pops, the dollar probably goes down with higher interest rates. Then there will be a call to bring back the manufacturing jobs.
Posted by alan | December 14, 2005 12:17 PM
Posted on December 14, 2005 12:17
When was the last time you saw a Congressman lose his/her job? I agree with you, there is a problem but I don't see anyone (public, Congress, Pres., press) doing anything about it, anytime soon. Nothing happened when gas was $3.00 a gallon except a little noise on the cable channels. I have had several friends lose their high paying tech jobs through outsourcing over the years. They live on credit cards and home equity loans, they don't complain. They have long since been dropped of the Fed. unemployment rolls. How many are there like them.
Posted by Al K. | December 14, 2005 7:50 PM
Posted on December 14, 2005 19:50