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The Market: A Pause to Refresh

We'll have to wait and see if all of the calls for the market to go higher actually pan out. This is not a negative comment, but investing in what may be the final stages of this secular bull market is kind of like playing dodge ball in a phone booth.

As I have said many times before, I am not very good at putting my feet on the edge of a cliff. So, even if the market does put on another 5-7% on the upside, I will have a difficult time getting myself to participate.

So far, the rally from the October lows have followed most technical forecasts and the recent pullback is getting under way right on cue. Will the market try to rally to new highs before the end of the year, or early 2006? I don't know.

This is why I call this period in the market, 兎dge of the cliff" investing. Anything could happen, and it usually does.

TODAY'S MARKET:

The main buzz word that most market mavens like to use during markets such as todays is, "pause to refresh". This means the market is trying to catch its second wind before attempting another run to the upside. Another term they like to use is "backing up to get a running start to jump over the fence". Whatever term you want to use, the consensus seems to be that another rally attempt will happen before year-end.

The word 田onsensus� bothers me a little, because the market is notorious for doing the opposite of what most people expect. For example, what if the retail sales numbers begin to show that investors are not spending as much as initially expected. Or, oil prices resume their march upward after a brief pause. Given these unforeseen items, you can see why I think participating on an extra 5-7% on the upside is not worth it.

Today, oil prices closed up 59 cents to $59.91/ barrel. Cold weather is beginning to blanket the nations mid-section, northeast, and into parts of the south.

The only economic news of the day was the ISM non-manufacturing index which fell to 58.5 in November. This number was slightly below expectations after October's number came in at 60.0.

The only big news of the day was Boston Scientifics (BSX) $25 billion offer for Guidant (GDT). This is an act of desperation for BSX. The company knows that a JNJ-GDT merger would force BSX to put itself up for sale to be able to compete.

Overall, a pretty dull day.

DJIA: 10,835.01, down 42.50
S&P 500: 1262.09, down 2.99
NASDAQ Composite: 2257.60, down 15.70

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.