We have had a nice snapback rally in some of our energy stocks. I take comfort in owning these companies given the supply and demand issues facing the world. This is not to say that some manipulation will not happen.
If you remember, just prior to Election Day 2004, oil prices miraculously pulled back giving voters a false sense of security and after the election prices mysteriously took off again. At times I feel like I am playing "junior detective", but I have got to believe that the months leading to the 2006 midterm elections will bring about the same shenanigans.
So, what now? I want to ride the oil train a little bit longer, and see if we can play COP, SUN, VLO, and XOM for a nice trade. I want to continue to hold MRO because they would be an attractive candidate for a major oil company. CHK however is a little puzzling. After the massive insider buying by the company's CEO, Aubrey McClendon, Mr. McClendon made public comments that the company was not for sale.
These are very bold comments for a guy that owns almost 19 million shares of stock. Given his appetite for the stock, we will be patient.
As far as profits go, there is no industry in the world making the profits that the energy sector has. XOM just had the largest profits of any company in U.S. history. By all accounts, Exxon's $36.13 billion in profits was bigger than the economies of 125 countries around the globe.
As far as the overall market is concerned, the correction that many have been anticipating looks like it will occur sometime in March. I think we will see a fluctuation of oversold rallies, and overbought sell-offs, but generally with an upward bias in the market indexes.
My biggest concern is the last half of the year. I think we will see a substantial correction in the last 6 months.
