John Mugarian's Dynamic Growth

I have known Jim Rogers since the early 1990's. Rogers started the Quantum Fund with George Soros, and is undoubtably one of the best at spotting long term trends in world economies and the markets.

In his recent visit to India, Jim gave investors a rare glimpse of the commodities market, and weighed in on the longer term trends for energy.

Here are a few of his comments:

Crude Oil: “Sooner or later the black gold will hit the $100 a barrel mark. “Crude oil price could come down if Shell energy or other groups are successful in exploring oil from the Canadian tar sand belt,” he said. Shell is reportedly spending around $4bn in the exploration work.

"Crude can go to USD 40 also. If the bird flu is going to wipe out Germany or something then crude can go down a lot. It is a normal correction in any kind of bull market, but over a period of time, the price of crude could go over USD 100 per barrel, or even over USD 150 per barrel. Nobody has discovered any gigantic oilfields for over 35 years and the reserves of oilfields are going down whether we like it or not."

We have owned Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T formerly SBC) since February 2004. Both companies were deep value, high dividend plays. Like most undervalued blue chips, often things take a few years to turnaround.

For value investors, the cash register is beginning to ring. Here are some recent technical comments from Dorsey Wright on the telecoms:

In yesterday’s report, we discussed how Financials were starting to gain traction, especially compared to their Energy brethren. This potential (sector) rotation fits in with our discussion on the market, and how it might take on characteristics similar to that of 1994 – which was truly a year that was typified by “sector rotation”. In line with this potential “rotation” scenario, we have seen another sector that is starting to ring up returns – the Telecom sector; and in particular, it is the Baby Bells that are calling for our attention.

Basically, another word for this recent action is positive relative strength. Albeit in the very short-term, but nonetheless it is something to recognize. The fact that BLS, T, and VZ are in the Top 5 in X Rank shows that the Baby Bells are gaining traction compared to their Telecom peers.

The U.S. will probably sit this one out, but with all the rumors flying about a possible Israeli strike on Iran, the President's visit to the surrounding countries seems uncharacteristically timely.

Rumors of an Israeli strike on Iran has not gathered as much attention in the U.S. as it has from media outlets around the world. An attack on Iran could send oil prices skyrocketing, and the President has been paying visits to countries surrounding Iran (Afghanistan) as well as countries in the buffer zone (India) between China and Iran.

Protests have irrupted in New Delhi as President Bush met with India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The President will leave India on Friday, and will travel to Pakistan on Saturday.

The U.S. already has friendly relations with Pakistan, and Jordan. In the event Israel does decide to take action, getting clearance to use Jordanian airspace seems to be no problem, and the U.S. controls the airspace over Iraq.

In the event of an attack, Israel could refuel their jets in Iraq, and the U.S. would only play a supporting roll in the military undertaking.

Of course, these are all rumors, but I do feel the timing of the President's visits to be odd.

My neighbor has had his beach condo on the market for two months. They have not had one nibble. Why? Most consumers have been priced out of the market. In fact, consumers are cancelling their orders for new homes as we speak.

Now don't get too eager to begin buying, the decline is just now getting under way. In May 2005, I wrote:

May 14, 2005

So, what does that have to do with us? You池e right; we池e not dumb enough to get ourselves involved in another over inflated bubble, are we? No way! Once is enough. The reason I make reference to real estate is our lovable Fed chief is determined to squash inflation, and almost every inflationary pressure we are witnessing is coming from higher commodity prices. If the demand for housing can be slowed, commodity prices would decline, and inflation fears would subside.

As many of you are aware, I watch insider trading very closely. I am amazed by the massive amount of money being made by insiders as they cash in their stock options and grants. While Wall Street continues to yell "buy", insiders are selling. Here are a few examples:

Google (GOOG) : Only recently have a few analysts begun to turn cautious. But here are the latest analyst opinions, and here are what the insiders are doing. I guess insiders do not listen to analysts.

Even this yahoo report does not tell the entire truth behind the insider sells in Google shares. You might have to take an insider service to get a more accurate picture.

United Health Group (UNH): Insider Transactions. At the top of this list, you'll notice where the Chairman exercised an option for 2.3 million shares at $5/ share, and cashed out at $59.10, pocketing a cool $11,518,000. What a racket!

Here are the analyst opinions.

On the flip side, lets look at Boston Scientific (BSX): Two firms recently downgraded the stock to neutral and hold respectively. Once again the insiders ignored the analysts opinions.

I could go on and on, but I think your getting the picture.

Here is a very good question from a viewer on market timing letters:

Hello John,

J. Saria

Thank you for your kind words. I work very hard at bringing investors information that they will not normally hear from Wall Street until its too late. If an investor can spot opportunities when others see disasters, and avoid train wrecks before they happen, this is undoubtedly the key to safe and successful investing.

These comments are obviously a good lead in to your question about market timing. Here's what I think:

The stock market was all over the board today. Intel finally admitted what Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had been telling us all along; they're losing market share. AMD really did not have to say anything, watching the stocks performance the over past 6 months says it all.

The struggle between the bulls and bears ended with the major averages little changed. The strong rebound we witnessed shortly after noon erased most of the markets early losses, but the bulls looked exhausted after the Dow and Nasdaq were unable to hold on to the bounce.

DJIA: 11021.59, down 3.92
S&P 500: 1287.23, down 1.91
NASDAQ: 2302.60, down 8.50

The merger between AT&T and BellSouth (BLS) was no surprise to me. I have been reporting on the merger activity in the telecom and oil industies for quite some time. Here is one of the first articles I wrote about the telecom industry.

Here are a some others pieces I wrote about the future in telecom.

March 07, 2005

Layoffs, outsourcing, and corporate restructuring will eventually take their toll on the US economy. Of course, like our call on the telecoms a few years ago, these things take time.

When you look at the large number of jobs lost in recent years, one has got to take a few steps back and say, how long can the economy and the stock market continue to thrive when hundreds of thousands are losing their jobs?

We already know that outsourcing has been responsible for millions jobs lost over the past 5 years, and the closure of 2,000 manufacturing plants in the US. Since the unemployment rate does not measure jobs lost to outsourcing and foreign workers, the employment numbers being reported are not accurate.

This morning, AT&T (formerly SBC) said they "plan to cut an additional 10,000 jobs as a result of its merger with BellSouth Corp." When AT&T and SBC merged, 13,000 jobs were eliminated.

When you add up all of jobs lost due to restructurings, mergers, and outsourcing, the similarities to the roaring 20's and the depression are eerily similar.

No one can seem to come up with a logical explanation why the bond market continues to sell-off. Sure, there has been speculation that foreign central banks would be raising rates later this year, and higher foreign yields would provide competition for our debt. But, is there more that we don稚 know about?

Last week, I made mention that Iran had plans to open a competing oil trading exchange in competition to the New York Mercantile Exchange. I also said that 澱oth China and Japan will welcome the Iranian exchange in order to diversify their nation's investments away from dollars into other currencies. If, and when this happens, longer term interest rates in the U.S. could begin to rise.�

But what if other nations around the world begin lightening their load of US debt? Could this be what is happening?

As you have probably already noticed, when Jim Cramer recommends or highlights a stock on his daily show, the next day, the herd runs in to buy driving prices up.

Appealing to a person's greed is the largest selling point of any business. In this situation however, I want to show you how an insider took advantage of a run up in his company's stock after Cramer highlighted it on his show.

On Friday, March 3rd, Cramer talked about MRV Communications (MRVC)

He said,

" MRV Communications (MRVC) even with the stock dropping from $91 to $3 after the tech bubble burst. With over 70% of MRV's sales coming in Europe Cramer loves the numbers. Estimates are way to low. Gross margins jumped from 0% in the third quarter to 20% in the fourth. MRVC could see 30% sequential sales growth in its optical business in the first quarter of this year also. Momentum is huge here also, starting the year at $2 and up 60% since. Cramer added, "If you get momentum sickness, I think you should avoid this one."

Watch what MRV dirrector Igal Shidlovsky did after these comments.

I hate to admit it, but as more and more people try and attain wealth and greatness, the level of cheating continues to rise.

I picked up a book written by David Callahan called "The Cheating Culture". In the book, Callahan documents how American values have changed, and how people have become more selfish and cutthroat in their quest to get ahead.

I guess the public has learned a thing or two from Wall Street.

One of the sadest cases is the steroid scandals in baseball. Until yesterday, the media has basically given Barry Bonds a free pass while the attacks on others have escalated.

Here is a picture of Bonds before the steroid accusations, and here is a picture of Bonds the year he hit 73 homeruns. You can make up your own mind.

Oil prices fell in overnight trading as traders anticipated that OPEC will keep production levels steady at today's meeting. We'll the traders were right! Today, OPEC confirmed it will hold production at current levels to bring prices down, and the Energy Department reported a higher than expected build in crude inventories.

Now, that crude oil has dropped below the $60/bbl mark, prices will probably stabilize in the $50-$60 range. Remember what President Bush said during his State of the Union address:

"We Are On The Verge Of Dramatic Improvements In How We Power Our Automobiles."

This initiative will not become a reality unless consumers experience pain at the pump. Prices must remain high to convince consumers to buy hybrid vehicles. So, get use to higher energy prices, and big profits for the oil companies.

The stock market is attempting to attract some buyers after breaking below the 11,000 mark over the past few sessions. Don't get too anxious just yet.

I have adopted a rather callous philosophy toward the markets, and that philosophy is very simple. "Every stock is bad unless it goes up." As I have said before, there is a time to be in the market, and a time to be out". If quality stocks are going to correct, I would rather have a big chunk of my portfolio in cash.

Of course, if I am expecting a decline of 5, 10, or even 20%, I like to be invested in the Rydex Tempest 500 fund (RYTPX). At this stage of the game, I am not expecting an intermediate decline of more than 5-10%. By mid-year, I will become very defensive as I believe the decline through year-end could be much more severe.

MORGAN STANLEY EQUITY RESEARCH

EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION (XOM.N): POSITIVE ANALYST MEETING; MAINTAIN OVERWEIGHT - 09 Mar 2006

ExxonMobil Analyst Meeting Positive:
ExxonMobil held its annual analyst meeting yesterday in New York City, reviewing its strategic, operational and financial outlook. The company remains committed to value creation, which leads to higher valuation in the equity market in our opinion.

Staying the Course; Positive Themes Remain:
The strategies, growth profiles, and returns highlighted last week in our detailed report ('Super-Major Supreme' 03-02-2006) were supported at the meeting.

E&P, R&M and Chemicals Well Positioned:
Production growth target of 3%/yr. during 2006-2008 appears attainable. Significant gains likely from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, with US and Europe in decline. ExxonMobil has the largest and most sophisticated R&M system in the world and is well positioned for our positive outlook. Returns in Chemicals lead the peer group and with favorable cyclical dynamics, the outlook is positive.

ExxonMobil's Price Objective Is $78/share:
We attain our price target using our normalized EPS forecast of $4.20/share and a market P/E multiple, or our returns and valuation framework. The company's equity has rarely been this inexpensive, in our view, relative to its industry, on a variety of conventional measures, i.e., P/S, P/B, P/CF.

Maintain Attractive View on Integrated Oils/R&M: Integrated oils appear 15% undervalued on normalized returns on capital. Independent R&M represents the best value per unit of return in the global Energy sector, we believe.

Now I'm getting angry. This morning the Labor Department released the numbers for the February jobs report. The employment report stated that the economy added 243,000 jobs, but that the unemployment rate rose to 4.8%.

Why am I angry? Because they never tell American's the entire truth. Here is an article written by Paul Craig Roberts who served as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan.

You tell me, is this next statement important or not?

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOES NOT INCLUDE THE MILLIONS OF JOBS LOST TO FOREIGN COUNTRIES DUE TO OUTSOURCING.

Don't you think that little piece of information would be important to the American people? I would think so.

If the Labor Department would include the number of jobs lost due to outsourcing, what would the employment rate really be?

The March-April timeframe has always been a volatile period for investors. I don't think that this time will be any different. While I am expecting a fairly stiff correction, I do not believe that this is "the big one" (Fred Sanford saying) that many investors have been anticipating.

On the downside, we many see as little as a 5% pullback, or as much as 10%. After the pullback, I am expecting a sharp rally to 11,500 on the Dow, and 1350 on the S&P.

Sometime in Q2 and Q3, I am expecting a much more serious decline that could take the Dow below the 9000 mark, the S&P below 950, and the NASDAQ to 1750.

By year-end, I am expecting the markets to rally sharply, and push the Dow back up to the 11,000 mark.

I just got back from Tampa and Orlando, and while I did not post any comments for a few days, I do have some interesting observations.

1) DESPITE THE RECENT ACTION IN THE STOCK MARKET, THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING:

After catching the Yankees and Cardinals in Tampa on Tuesday, we drove to Orlando to watch the Braves and the Dodgers. Wednesday morning, I woke up to a headline in the Orlando paper talking about the light crowd for spring break this year. And the reason? The hotel and condo prices have scared students and many families away. This does not bode well for the Real Estate market.

When I viewed the latest Real Estate listings in Orlando, I was shocked to see homes listed, and advertised as "interest only" mortgages. A few other listings had rebates for customers purchasing homes. I had to do a double-take, I wasn't sure if they were trying to sell a home or a car. As I drove through Orlando on I-4, one guy went to a sign company and purchased a car magnet advertsing the sale of his condo. This real estate market is in trouble.

I had planned to return on Thursday, and I was sure there was no way I would be able to secure a hotel for Thursday and Friday. I was wrong. I not only secured a hotel, but was able to stay in my current hotel and keep the same room. For those familiar with hotel availability during spring break, you know this is no easy task.

2) GASOLINE PRICES JUMPED .20-.30 SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AND FRIDAY:

I was shocked when I went to fill up my rental car and saw that regular unleaded was $2.63. On Monday, just before I left I filled up at $2.21. This is insane (But good for our portfolios).

Gas prices are still fluctuating like the internet stocks of 1999. Oh, and the timing couldn't be more obvious. Its amazing how manipulated we are.

3) MORE MIS-INFORMATION FROM THE TAKING HEADS:

I heard some more spin from guests on the financial channels pertaining to the "low" unemployment rate. One guy said that despite the current debate over outsourcing, unemployment was near a record low. This is a very misleading statement.

As I have said before, the unemployment numbers do not count jobs lost from outsourcing in their reporting. So, if companies replace 2 million U.S. workers with 2 million Asians, the 2 million that lost their jobs are not counted as unemployed.

Here is a viewer question:

I recently received this question from a viewer concerning the unemployment numbers, and the exclusion of the jobs lost due to outsourcing:

John, when you post " unemployment numbers do not count jobs lost from outsourcing in their reporting. So, if companies replace 2 million U.S. workers with 2 million Asians, the 2 million that lost their jobs are not counted as unemployed."

Mr Solo

My source for the data is Paul Craig Roberts, A former editor and columnist for The Wall Street Journal, and a former assistant secretary of the Treasury for economic policy under Ronald Reagan. Here is a recent article written by Mr. Roberts that contains the information you are looking for.

The Consumer Staples sector is beginning to wake up from their long slumber. Does the market know something that most investors do not? I'll bet they do.

The Consumer Staples sector is hinting that the economic and market cycle may be approaching the next bear market phase. For impatient investors, you may have to wait until the summer and fall months to reap your reward, but clearly the recent movement in the group is giving us a heads up.

Staples normally do well as the economy weakens, and despite the recent moves in the stock market, the defensive sector is showing signs of life. During the bear market phase of 2000-2002, area's such as Beverages, Household and Personal Care, Tobacco, and Foods did very well.

I feel very comfortable with the IA portfolios invested position, as well as the hefty chunk in cash. Here's why.

Some of your better technical market guru's (those with the best accuracy- Peter Lee, Bruce Bittles) are in agreement that we are in a cyclical bull market that is quickly reaching its maturity. Once the cyclical bull ends, then the market will revert back to the cyclical bear.

Peter Lee has been calling for 1350 on the S&P, with a potential blow-off rally that could carry the S&P as high as 1400. With the S&P currently at 1308, and money market yields at 4.2%, 4.2% higher on the S&P would put the index at 1362. This being said, why risk your cash in the stock market when you could get a safe 4.2% in a money market?

As far as the DJIA is concerned, Lee has a target of 11,500, with a blow-off potential of 12,000. The DJIA currently stands at 11,315, 4.2% higher would take the averages up to 11,790, so once again I ask, why risk it?

For my money, I'll take the 4.2% and sleep well at night.

The second year of most election cycles have marked important lows that eventually lead to significant gains. Will the same results occur this time around? We think so.

Looking back at past mid-term election cycles, Peter Lee put out a piece I would like to share with you. Lee said that "the mid-term election year has produced a tradable market bottom each time since 1914."

This opinion corresponds well with many technicians that believe a significant market low will be set during the second half of 2006.

Lee said, "we turn to historical data to see if past market behavior can give us any clues that can aid us in our current trading decisions. We have dissected the daily closing prices of the S&P 500 back to 1934 to see how it performed once the mid-term year bottom was put in. We calculated the mid-term low on a daily closing basis to the December 31 close of the following pre-election year. in our findings, since 1934 there were no negative returns based on buying the daily closing price low during the Presidential mid-term year, and holding it until December 31st of the following year.

"There were two occurances where the S&P 500 made a lower low before closing higher that December."

Here are the results Peter Lee's study:

If you have been keeping up with our posts on the website, we have laid out a compelling argument for why we are cautious on the market and the economy for the second half of the year. On the website, I have also provided several links that back up our opinion.

Our job is to sift through the plethora of economic information, make sense of it, and look for any discrepancies if we can. We have found several.

We have been hearing a lot of talk over illegal immigration, the outsourcing of American jobs, the trade deficit with Red China, and a host of other issues. Lou Dobbs has done a good job pounding the issue home, but has stopped short at pointing the finger at the root cause of these problems.

Will all of these issues have a profound impact on how we live and who we are as a nation? They already have.

Years ago in the south, they have the saying 釘arefoot and Pregnant". This simply means that a person's mind can be manipulated and re-directed in another direction so that they are oblivious to what痴 going on around them. Unfortunately, the same thing is happening to the public by those who control the future direction of our nation.

Don't you find it odd that our politicians are not outraged over illegal immigration, are not concerned with protecting our boarders, are not infuriated over the outsourcing of American jobs, are not nauseated over the collapse of our dollar, or over high energy prices? Why are they not hot under the collar over these issues? The reason is very simple, because they do not work for you.

If you want to dig deeper into why these things are occurring, simply Google a few of these key phrases or words and see what pops up. I think you'll find some of the answers to your questions:

1) New World Order
2) Globalization
3) Trilateral Commission

A MLS report came out this week in our area, and the inventory of homes on the market climbed 5 fold. Don't begin to think that these are bargain days however, we will see lower prices and more inventory as the months progress.

Here is a recent article from the AP on new home sales.

I wrote a report entitled “The One Conservative Investing Strategy Every Investor Should Use…But Hardly Any Do”. You can read it for yourself under the "Reports" section, then click on "Options".

Options are truly one of the best total return enhancers available to investors. You need to be careful however, since the there are two sides to this wealth building market, and one sides odds of winning is much greater than the other.

The Options Market

Options give investors the right, but not the obligation to buy or sell a particular security at a predetermined price, at a predetermined date. There are basically two sides to an option:

1. Buyer - the speculative side
2. Seller - the conservative side

The buyer is taking money out of their pocket – hence speculative. The seller is putting money in their pocket – hence conservative.

Buyer - A buyer of an option is best described as a gambler. Similar to someone putting coins in a slot machine, the option buyer is hoping for the “big payoff”. When purchasing an option, the odds of losing are 80% ｱ. The buyer is betting a stock will rise or fall to a particular price within a particular time frame. If the buyer is wrong about the direction or the time, a loss will result. While some investor’s buy options to hedge their portfolios, others gamble.

Seller - A seller of an option is interested in cash flow. The seller basically accommodates the gambler. Since the buyer puts money in the slot machine, the seller plays the role as the slot machine. When an investor sells an option, the odds are they will win 80% ｱ of the time. The seller is not looking for the “big payoff”, just a smooth steady income stream. The seller is willing to sell stock that they own at a higher price than is currently quoted, and is willing to buy a stock at a lower price than currently quoted. Makes sense doesn’t it?

You can almost smell a blow-off rally brewing. With almost all of the bad news on the table, stocks refuse to go down.

Last week new home sales fell 10.5%, well below forecasts. This report led investors to believe that the economy was weakening, and the Fed would stop raising rates sooner rather than latter. The February report on new home sales was the largest decline since April 1997.

For some reason, the market is under the illusion that after the last rate hike, the Fed will reverse course, and begin lowering rates. As reality begins to catch up with investor's illusions, the market will begin its decline in earnest. The Fed Funds futures are currently factoring in at least a 5% fed funds rate, and 5% begins to spark a real competition between stocks and bonds.

If you have been keeping up with my journal posts, you are well of our stance on the housing market, and the trickle down affect it will have on the economy. I have been pounding this issue home for quite some time.

Here is the latest take on the situation from BCA Research.

As crude oil prices leaped toward the $66/ barrel mark, today's excuse is worries about the on-going turmoil in Nigeria, possible labor strikes in Norway, and supply issues in Iran. Have you ever noticed when it comes to oil, it痴 always something.

In the fall, the excuse for higher energy prices were fears of a colder than normal winter in the northeast. This winter was mild and we still have high energy prices. The next excuse will be the summer driving season, and after that will be the fears over the upcoming hurricane season. Not withstanding a geopolitical event, the cycle will return to its same old mantra.

Gasoline prices rose again to put the price of a gallon of unleaded up to $1.86. When you add the federal, state and local taxes on a gallon of gas, you find consumers are paying out the nose.

Well, it痴 official but no surprise. Today the Federal Open Market Committee said: (I highlighted a few key phrases)

"The slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seems largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives."

Translation:

1) Energy and Commodity prices have gone through the roof, but since energy prices are not factored into the inflation numbers, we cannot tell you there is inflation. Oh, one more thing; the pain you are feeling at the pump when you fill up your car, that's not inflation. And don't worry about those higher housing price, that痴 just an illusion.

2) Higher Energy and Commodity prices have not showed up in the prices we pay for goods made from manufacturing plants we have outsourced to other countries, but they might have the potential to add to inflationary pressures down the road. If U.S. corporations have to begin paying Indian and Malaysian workers more than a dollar an hour, we will really begin to see the effects of inflation.

3) We are going to continue raising rates because there are inflationary pressures that we are seeing, but are not factored into the inflation data reported to you. Don't worry; the great and powerful oz has everything under control.

There continues to be a big gap between headline inflation and core inflation. Of course, core inflation is the only number that is actively touted. So, all of this talk about inflation being in check is nothing more than a mirage.

When we look at headline inflation however, we continue to see similarities to the 1970's.

High energy prices eventually influence economic activity negatively. But like most interest rate increases, the full effect is not usually felt until months after the rate hike. I think you'll see a similar reaction as energy prices remain high. Since core inflation does not include important components like food and energy, core inflation does not correspond well with reality.

Here is an article from the New York Times; read the comments by Steven Roach from Morgan Stanley.

The leadership in the market has been incredibly narrow, and our work tells us that the best performance has been limited to specific sectors.

We have been keeping performance data for my upcoming newsletter Dynamic Growth, and our data identified these sectors to be the best investment area's for March ( I will get new data for April soon ):

Best Sectors for March:

1) Brokerage & Investment Management
2) Healthcare
3) Medical Delivery
4) Gold
5) Energy Services
6) Pharmaceuticals
7) Natural Resources
8) Natural Gas
9) Wireless
10) Air Transport

To identify the best investment sectors for March, Navellier & Associates is providing me with the data to compile the list. When we back tested the data, we found that investing in the top sectors each and every month beat the Russell 3000 by over 4-to-1 over the last 4 1/4 years.

With the plethoria of financial information available on the net, sometimes its difficult to determine whose analysis is the most accurate.

I have found that its tough to find anyone better than Marc Faber and Bruce Bittles. Just click on the name below, and pull up the recent market commentaries of these two outstanding market guru's.

Marc Faber
Bruce Bittles

I really don't have a problem with most brokers, I do have a problem with whom they work. In case you missed it, read this article.

Investors have heard over and over again that inflation is not a problem. As commodities, energies, and metals continue to march higher, your best approach is to "Believe What You See, Not What You Hear".

In 2001, just before the bull market in commodities began, Merrill Lynch decided to exit the business of trading commodities because of lack of interest from its clients. Shortly after this decision, the bull market in commodities began. So, when will be the time for investors to exit their commodity positions? Probably when Merrill begins re-opens its commodity trading business. Sound cynical?

Not if you listen to legendary investor Jim Rogers. In his book, Adventure Capitalist, Rogers said, "When Merrill goes back into the commodity business... sell out".

Until then, the commodity bull is taking its toll on inflation here, and around the world.