I have known Jim Rogers since the early 1990's. Rogers started the Quantum Fund with George Soros, and is undoubtably one of the best at spotting long term trends in world economies and the markets.
In his recent visit to India, Jim gave investors a rare glimpse of the commodities market, and weighed in on the longer term trends for energy.
Here are a few of his comments:
Crude Oil: Sooner or later the black gold will hit the $100 a barrel mark. Crude oil price could come down if Shell energy or other groups are successful in exploring oil from the Canadian tar sand belt, he said. Shell is reportedly spending around $4bn in the exploration work.
"Crude can go to USD 40 also. If the bird flu is going to wipe out Germany or something then crude can go down a lot. It is a normal correction in any kind of bull market, but over a period of time, the price of crude could go over USD 100 per barrel, or even over USD 150 per barrel. Nobody has discovered any gigantic oilfields for over 35 years and the reserves of oilfields are going down whether we like it or not."
Commodities: "keep buying and stay bullish." "All agriculural commodities are where people should be looking for opportunities right now.
Stock Markets: U.S. & India:" it is time to be worried about the Indian and US stock markets." "In the US the stocks have done nothing for two years and neither have bonds. My view is that the stock market will be going down in 2006 and maybe in 2007 as well. You had a great stock market here in India and it has more than doubled in two years. I am cautious about your market and I did not participate much in the move, so I did not make a lot of money. Although only a little bit, but I do think it is time to be worried about the Indian stock market and certainly worried about the US stock market."
Metals: "I am bullish on gold and I own gold and and gold is at all time high, which has been USD 875 per ounce."
"Gold is going to make an all time high in this bull market. In bull markets everything eventually makes an all time high and most things make an all time high well above the old highs. So gold is surely going to go to USD 900 per ounce in the next few years and probably higher than that."
"I would not buy copper right now because it is at an all time high and I dont like buying anything when it is at an all time high. But it is going to be much higher over the years, and people are not opening new copper mines for decades now and so all this stuff is going to go much higher."
"The surprise is going to be how high prices stay when they consolidate and correct and how high they would go in the next move up."
