For the past few months we have heard market experts tell us that business spending will pick up the slack if consumer spending slows down. That's not what the "Core" Durable Goods Orders are saying.

Durable Goods are items that have an intending lifespan of three years or more. Orders for Durable Goods in February increased 2.6%, the fourth increase in the past 5 months. Over the last 12 months, total orders were up 7.8%. But, when you look inside the numbers, you get a totally different view.

The 7.8% increase over the last 12 months were propelled by a 104% increase in defense orders, and 52% in non-defense aircraft orders. Since transportation orders are cyclical, they are also not sustainable.

The numbers to focus on are new orders for non-defense capital goods, and when we do this, we see that Durable Goods orders for February actually fell. This number may actually imply that business spend in the months ahead may not be as robust as the experts are suggesting.