Here is a quote I read this morning;
"Crude oil futures are trading up this morning likely due to speculation on whether OPEC will cut their output ceilings. The November contract is trading at $62/bbl, 41 cents above Thursday's close."
A few days ago (September 20, 2006) I wrote;
Here is my next prediction;
After the November elections, if oil prices remain weak (below $60/bbl), OPEC will begin to cut production to keep prices about $60.
Humm...
I have to say one of the most important lessons I have learned in investing is to keep your mind open to all possibilities. Why does the market tend to move against conventional wisdom or majority opinion? Unlike the average investor, real market players have no barriers cementing their thoughts to one way of thinking.
One of the best quotes I have ever heard came from a friend of mine, Louis Navellier. In the book, "Secrets of the Investment All-Stars", he said;
"If any of my employees ever love or hate a stock, I have to fire them."
Think about that quote for a moment. Basically what he is saying is that we always have to be open to the possibility that there may be a better way to profit regardless of the name of the stock. If we have to sell GE to buy Garmin to make money, that's what we have to do.
Conventional thinking however would argue that GE is a world class company I one that should be held forever even if it doesn't make the investor any money for 1,3,5, or even 10 years. Conventional thinking would also say that Garmin is a niche business that will only last a few years. All the while, a stock like Garmin has doubled or tripled in price while conventional thinking is making the investor little or no money.
Investors can quote the Warren Buffett buy and hold strategy, but the average investor cannot do what Buffett does. Buffett can hold his stocks until the end of time because his bank account is constantly being replenished with cash from his insurance companies. So, if the stock market happens to fall 50%, Buffett doesn't worry because he always has plenty of cash to reinvest. The small investor on the other hand does not have a huge bank account, so whenever the market experiences a nasty correction, they panic and sell, or get real depressed.
I've have first hand experience with the moods of investors. When the market is rising the average investor is quoting Buffett. When the market reaches euphoric levels they are quoting Buffett. When they market tanks, they go running for cover.
If we are going to play this high stakes game of investing with our nest eggs, we had better learn to think like those around us (who control the markets) think. The businessmen within the stock market are in direct competition with you. For every winner, there has to be a loser.
The stock market is a business, it is not a game. If you are playing the market with your gambling or Las Vegas money, you need to understand that there are a lot of very smart and very powerful people who make millions by moving money in and out of the stock market.
If our minds are cemented toward one investment process, one way of doing things, one groups opinion is always better than another group, or one way of thinking, then our minds become paralyzed.
When minds become paralyzed, the human race does some pretty stupid things. One example of paralyzed thinking is the constant conflicts between religious and political factions. Since the beginning of time, more death and destruction has occurred because of these cemented beliefs.
Cemented beliefs in the stock market can and will paralyze an investors performance.


Comments (1)
John,
I had a couple more questions.
1) Whatever happened to your newsletter? I think the last posting I saw was last year sometime?
2) Do you update your portfolio picks on a pretty regular basis and is there more of a description of why you have picked them?
Have you held GoldCorp through this entire drop? I think they are down 40% if I am not mistaken since Gold started dropping. Do you have any ideas on that?
I think I am more of a fundamental investor, but like you side, I don't have years to wait like Buffet to turn a profit. I am thinking that with certain factors I would jump ship on a stock if indicators told me it would be down for sometime and then bounce back. Is that too much of a timing problem?
Posted by stromprophet | September 22, 2006 1:09 PM
Posted on September 22, 2006 13:09