I’m kinda dumfounded to see this issue come up time and again, but there they go again: The National Retail Federation is once again putting out bad dope:

"Retailers kicked off the holiday selling season in style as shoppers across the country set their alarms for the wee hours of the morning to catch doorbuster specials. According to the National Retail Federation’s 2006 Black Friday Weekend Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, more than 140 million shoppers hit the stores on Black Friday weekend, spending an average of $360.15, up 18.9 percent from last year’s $302.81.*"

Or so said the NRF's press release.

Given last year's debacle, as well as the more recent cheerleading back-to-school forecast, one would have hoped the NRF would make it clearer that this isn't actual sales data -- but rather, is a survey asking people how much they intend to spend, and on what items.

Last year, numerous media mistakenly trumpeted misleading data as an actual measure of sales, rather than a mere survey. This year, a similar errors showed up in various Holiday Retail articles -- some more or less erroneous than last year:

WSJ: "In a survey of 3,090 consumers, the trade association found that shoppers spent an average of $360.15 this weekend, up nearly 19% from last year's $302.81. Discounters were still the most popular shopping destination, but their share dropped significantly from last year; about 50% of those surveyed said they visited a discounter over the weekend, compared with 61% last year."

Bloomberg: "U.S. consumers shopping over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend spent 19 percent more than a year earlier, outpacing the advance of 2005, after retailers slashed prices to attract customers.

Consumers spent an average $360.15 from Nov. 23 through yesterday, up from $302.81 a year earlier, the National Retail Federation said yesterday in a statement. Fewer people shopped, with about 140 million visiting stores during the four days including Thanksgiving, down from 145 million last year."

No, spending was not up 19%. A survey of shoppers DONE 11/23-11/25 found that people said they expected to spend 19% more. These were not actual spent dollars, but rather, were expctations of spending. There's an enormous difference, especailly when we consider that people tend to be very poor judges of their own behavior.

Note that this error is endemic to this group, and last year saw the same issue: for 2005, the NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION said holdiay Retail sales rose 22% (it didn’t).

Its hard to imagine a 19% increase in spending would lead to triple digit loss for the Dow . . .

>

Sources:
Early Birds Catch Plenty of Worms as Retailers Have Lucrative Black Friday
NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION, November 26, 2006 --
http://www.nrf.com/content/default.asp?folder=press/release2006&file=blackfriday2006.htm

Black Friday survey

Holiday Sales Get Off to Solid Start, But Wal-Mart Doesn't Share Cheer
AMY MERRICK and KRIS HUDSON
November 27, 2006; Page A1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116459701046633253.html