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Everyone has an opinion, and I respect all reasonable opinions. The latest opinions on oil however seem to be based more on conjecture than cold hard facts.
Here is an article written by William Trent from Seeking Alpha. I like a guy who checks his emotions at the door and just gives us the facts.
As I mention yesterday, oil inventories continue to decline. I don't know why, and I don't know who, but we do know someone is buying. I could care less about the build in gasoline and heating oil inventories, I am more interested in the significant drawdown in crude oil.
By now, you have probably heard that a US submarine has collided with a Japanese tanker near the Straits of Hormuz. Pat Buchanan weighs in with this article about Israel's preparation for a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities.
I don't think there is a rational person alive that believes that the US can send 20,000 additional troops to Iraq and win the war. The consensus seems to be that the 20,000 troop surge will play a supporting roll in helping the Israelis launch a strike against Iran.
Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration weighs in with these thoughts-"Distracting Congress from the Real War Plan"
Obviously, if an attack on Iran does take place, the repercussions in the oil markets would be violent. Iran would probably cut off oil supplies, and Venezuela would join in, and China and Russia would be very upset.
At this stage of the game, I think the risks of an oil price shock are just as high as they were during the oil embargo of the 1970's.
