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Market Musings

The big (under the radar) movements in the stock market yesterday were among the semiconductor group.

Intel (INTC) put in a bottom on March 27th at $18.86, and yesterday it closed at $20.68. This represents a 9.65% move during that period.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) received an upgrade from UBS. The stock was rated "reduce" with a price target of $12. The stock is now rated "neutral" with a price target of $14.

Other than the news on the semi's, not much is going on.

Today, it will be interesting to see what kind of spin the fed is going to put on the massive inflation we are witnessing. The FOMC notes will be released today.

A large than expected decline in gasoline inventories is pushing up fuel prices. This is the 9th week of falling gasoline inventories.

Culture Changes and Fallout

I've often said that people are the market, and that is why it is important to watch what people do and what they become.

The bubbles created by the Nasdaq in 2000, and the Real Estate Bubble that ended recently are prime examples of how people are focus on the "I want mine too" mentality. That's all well and good, but how a person goes about becoming the person they want to be creates bubbles if they follow the herd.

If you turned on the TV at all the last few days, the airwaves were jammed with the Imus fallout and the DNA test results of who Anna Nichole's baby belongs to. Instead of focusing on what they were saying, I was focusing on the cultural ramifications from what was going on.

As I watched the arguments over the Imus situation yesterday, three of the guests had raised some very important points about our culture. One debate focused on the "gangster rap" music that is so popular among young adults. During the exchange, they talked about the vulgar lyrics in the rap songs, but then said that 80% of the rap music purchases were by young white kids. The point was that blaming the black kids for supporting the "gangster rap" trend was a mistake. I have to agree.

So, knowing this, what does it say about our future work-force and culture?

I am a big self development guy. I started my self esteem training by attending self help seminars and listening to Zig Ziglar tapes. After hearing the statements made above, I couldn't help but remember what Zig preached in his seminars and tapes;

"You are what you are because of what goes into your mind".

"You can change who you are, you can change what you are, by changing what goes into your mind".

I believe every bit of what Zig Ziglar said. As a culture, we have become what we see, what we hear, and the influences others have on us.

Culturally, we are the stock market. Johnnie Cockran used the slogan “If it doesn't fit, you must acquit" after the glove warn by the killer was seemingly too tight for OJ Simpson's hand.

Here is another one for the stock market. "If we don't buy, the stock market can't fly". If Zig Ziglar is right, and "You are what you are because of what goes into your mind", how can society continue to be productive with constant irresponsible behavior.


The "I want mine too" mentality has turned into full blown greed. The bursting of the real estate bubble and the fallout from the sub prime lending debacle has the potential to turn the economy on its head.

Too many are ignoring the connection between mortgage availability, affordability, and consumer spending. The availability of mortgage credit has fueled the consumer spending boom. This avenue of funds has been sealed shut.

Give all that has taken place, I feel the equity markets are vulnerable to a major shakeout. Sure the fed can continue to prop up the markets, but a falling dollar and rising gold prices don't lie.

Foreclosures continue to rise, the savings rate is at zero, and Wall Street continues to rationalize something that cannot be defended.

Our Position: Remain Defensive

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