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Greenspan's shot across the bow

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I spent most of yesterday writing up my analysis of the markets for my clients. My firm has many clients, and our assets have grown significantly since leaving the "controlled" brokerage business. Its amazing what happens when clients realize their advisor is actually working for them and not the firm.

I use the word "controlled" when describing the brokerages houses because that's exactly what today's brokers are. They are told what to think, what to say, and what to sell. Pretty scary isn't it?

Our investment strategies have worked extremely well. We use an asset allocation process that includes index stock funds, sector funds, bonds, cd's, and cash. Individual stocks are used for some investors, but they must be able to handle some potential negatives. What are they? Where do you want me to start?

How about potential outcomes like Enron, Worldcom, Qwest, etc... I don't think we got the full list of companies that were cheating on their earnings in 2000, and based on what happened in the past, anything is possible.

In reality, many in our society today are cheaters. If you want to read a good book on the subject, read a book written by David Callahan called "The Cheating Culture". In the book, Callahan documents how American values have changed, and how people have become more selfish and cutthroat in their quest to get ahead.

One of the saddest cases of cheating is the steroid scandals in baseball. It amazes me that the media has basically given Barry Bonds a free pass while the attacks on others have escalated. If Mark McGuire was in the process of breaking Hank Aaron's homerun record, the media would be on him daily calling him all kinds of names. Barry Bonds is getting off lightly which makes me think we have a different standard for different people.

In the stock market, I am convinced we have a different standard for different people. All you have to do is look and see what Hedge Funds & Private Equity is getting away with. Don't you find it strange that the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates for the average American, forcing their monthly mortgage and home equity payments to rise, but Private Equity can go to Japan and borrow money at 1/2 or .50%, and buy stocks or entire companies with the cash?

There is also a different standard for corporate executives who are issued hundreds of thousands of shares of stock, and get rich quick by simply selling those shares. That's how the boys at Google, Cisco, and Microsoft made their fortunes. While you and I have to save money each month from our pay, corporate executives get a salary to live on, and get rich buy selling issued stock.

What is really sad is many companies still do not expense stock grants or options on their quarterly reports, so we really do not know what their true earnings are.

Yesterday, Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said he was concerned Chinese stocks might undergo a ``dramatic contraction''. For those who do not know what this means, this was
Greenspan's warning shot across the bow.

China has been increasing interest rates in an effort to handle a runaway stock market. Its amazing how the brotherhood at Goldman Sachs said the same thing last week. To think this will not have ramifications here in our markets is a naive assumption.

For now, I will take Mr. Greenspan at his word. The last time he issued a warning shot was in 1999-2000.

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