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Here are some comments I made in this weeks newsletter briefing;
The cat is finally out of the bag as the bond crowd is finally beginning to realize that "real" inflation is out of control. By "real" I mean, products that you and I use and need on a daily basis.
This morning, a Bloomberg headline said that Milk prices are set to rise another 17% next month. The increase in food prices are leaping due to higher costs for agricultural products such as corn, and fuel costs for transporting products.
U.S. Bonds: As interest rates climb, consumers with Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM's), Lines of Credit, and high credit card debt will be reaching for a lifejacket. On Friday, interest rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage were at 6.65%, and the prime rate for credit lines is now at 8.25%.
U.S. Equities: Friday's 185 point sell-off is the 5th 100 point drop in the month of June. Clearly, the stock market is becoming more volatile, and much more selective.
The string of disappointments for many retailers continues to be a red flag for the consumer discretionary sector. Two retailers, Limited Brands (LTD) and Home Depot (HD) are taking on debt to buyback stock. I've always been taught that buying stock in companies that were aggressively paying down debt and buying back stock was a good thing. I guess I don't understand the "new" financial engineering that's going on nowadays.
Geopolitical Issues: One of the main reasons for the recent rise in bond yields is the selling of U.S. Treasuries by foreign investors. Major oil producing nations in the Middle East have been dumping their U.S. dollar denominated assets to hedge themselves against a weak dollar. In addition, China and other Asian central banks have become a net sellers of U.S. Treasuries recently.
Energy Prices: Given the demand from the summer driving season and a forecast for an active hurricane season, I don't see much relief in sight for gas prices until late September.

