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Here are some comments I made in this weeks newsletter briefing;
Oddly, as tensions have risen between the US economic team, and the Chinese economic team, so have interest rates. Interest rates rise whenever inflation is out of control, or some big holder of US debt decides they want to sell some of their bonds. In this case, is it possible that China is unloading some of their massive US debt holdings, and driving interest rates higher? At this stage of the game, anything is possible.
By now I'm sure you have heard of the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Well the mortar holding the B.R.I.C's together is China. If we get the slowdown that Alan Greenspan says is coming, look for a major pullback in commodity related stocks, funds and ETF's.
In 2000, the short interest ratio was 1.46 when the S&P peaked in March. Recently, the short interest ratio has been at 2.94, the highest level since 1998.
What leads me to believe that the hedge funds (and not the small investor) are responsible for the record short interest is the latest AAIA survey that showed that individual investors are not as optimistic as they should be with the market at an all time high.
I don't believe that the small investor is responsible for the record short interest. If they were, I would be very bullish on the markets.
