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Bird's Eye View: Thursday, January 31, 2008

Before I get started, I want to bring you up to speed on our website, and what we are working on behind the scenes.

The "Journal" portion of the website will always be available to all viewers. In the next few months’s, the "Newsletter-Portfolio" will become a paid sight and we will no longer post our portfolio's in the "Journal". The behind the scenes set up issues have taken a lot longer than I had anticipated.

Since August 2007, I have been posting the "Newsletter" portion of the website in the "Journal" for free. I did this to eliminate the hassle of having to signing up for a free-trial to the "Newsletter", plus I wanted you to judge the performance of our model portfolios for yourself.

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Yesterday, the Federal Reserve (FOMC) cut the Fed Funds and the Discount Rate -50 basis points, bring the FF rate down 1.25% in two weeks. When you couple this with a $150 billion stimulus package, the Fed must really be concerned with the economic problems facing consumers and businesses.

The Dow rose as much as 201 points after the Fed cut, but lost all of that gain to close lower (-37.47) in the last half hour of trading.

As Paul Harvey says, "You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story". I'm not sure I want to hear the rest of the story.

As a matter of fact, I don't know if we will ever hear the rest of the story.

The current crisis surrounding residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (RMBS / CMBS), collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), credit default swaps (CDSs), and Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs) is so complex and mind boggling that its beginning to look more and more like a pyramid scheme.

Even the CEO of Wells Fargo said, “Why did banks look for new ways to lose money when the old ways were working so well”?

Depending where you are on the pyramid ladder will eventually determine how much money you made or lost. I fear if all were revealed, millions of Americans would band together on Wall Street and Broad with baseball bats to take issue with the investment banks that created these products. Why? Your nest eggs would be wiped out.

Since I don't believe any of this will happen, here's what I think is going on.

Like the Enron scandal, some companies will be found guilty of their misdeeds. Others will be ignored and the problems will be sweep under the rug. You can't tell me that Enron, WorldCom, Qwest, and a few others were the only ones guilty of lying about earnings. In reality, there were probably many, many more.

Of course, the investment banks were involved in the Enron, WorldCom, and Dot-Con problems just as they are the current SIV crisis.

To smooth things over, regulators paraded a few CEO's in front of the cameras in handcuffs, and basically set an example by throwing them in jail. In time, the issue went away, and no Wall Street executive or analyst went to jail.

The New York Judge (Pollock) handling a class action case against the major Wall Street firms told the plaintiff attorney's for investors that their clients were stupid for listening to the advice of analysts.

Since the SIV, and CDO issue is much more dangerous than the one's surrounding Enron, and the bogus research reports, we may never hear the entire truth. This issue will go away faster than Brittney Spears at a MADD (Mother's Against Drunk Driving) meeting.

In the days and weeks ahead there will be more scary moments. The economic news continues to be mixed, but the trend is deterorating.

Yesterday, the ADP Employment Report showed a monthly (December 2007-January 2008) jobs increase of 130,000. This morning the Labor Department reported 69,000 new jobless claims in the latest week, pushing the total to 375,000. Thomson had forecasted a gain of just 14,000 new claims to 315,000.

Bond insurer MBIA announced a $2.3 billion loss after writing-down some of the subprime mortgage assets it guarantees.

Fitch's downgraded the world's fourth-largest bond insurer's credit rating, Financial Guaranty, after FGIC failed to meet a deadline to raise capital.

The Commerce's Department's personal consumption and income data showed that personal spending has slowed. Consumer spending in December declined to its weakest performance since September 2006.

My best guess is the stock market will retest last weeks lows of;

S&P500: 1270
DJIA: 11635
NASDAQ: 2202

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.