Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
SWITCHES:
None
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of March 31st:
1) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .589
2) EWZ: Brazil Index- .496
3) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .502
4) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .461
5) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .505
6) ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .378
7) OIH: Oil Services HOLDRS- .360
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .260
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated
Honorable Mention:
None
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for April 2008:
1) FSESX- Energy Services
2) FNARX: Natural Resources
3) FDFAX: Consumer Staples
4) FSENX- Energy
5) FSCHX: Chemicals
6) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
7) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
8) FSDPX: Materials
9) FWRLX- Wireless
10) FSRBX: Banking
Honorable Mention (Holds):
FSDAX: Defense & Aerospace
The Week in Review:
After spending the week in the Ft. Lauderdale- Palm Beach area a few things have become clear. The rich (billionaires & upper end millionaires) clearly know more than the rest of the population.
In downtown Ft. Lauderdale I saw several brokerage firms, but in Palm Beach the financial district was dominated by investment banks (Lehman, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup private bank, Wilmington Trust, etc.).
As we navigate thru the current credit crunch, public money seems to be potentially at risk, but I would assume that the institutions located in Palm Beach have the ability to take deposits of the mega-rich, and tuck them safely away in offshore safe havens.
I am still of the opinion that during periods of extreme crisis, solutions do appear. We are in the midst of a bottoming process, but I am not sold on the idea that the final bottom has been reached.
This being said, dollar cost averaging into the markets now seems to be the appropriate thing to do. It will take the market and the economy several more months to heal before a new bull market can begin.
Last week was another volatile week in the market. The stock market rallied on short covering after the Fed cut short-term interest rates .75%, and announced it was increasing its cash infusion to its Discount Window allowing cash strapped banks to borrow directly from the Fed.
Last Monday, the Dow rallied 187 points on news that JP Morgan had increased its bit for Bear Stearns to $10/share from $2.
Later in the week investors began to get bad news as technology bellwethers Google and Oracle said the economy was beginning to negatively affect business. When you combine this news with disappointing new homes sales, falling home prices, weak consumer sentiment, weak consumer spending, falling durable goods orders, and higher oil prices, the markets couldn't hold on to any post Fed gains.
On Wednesday, the DJIA closed down -110 points.
On Thursday, the DJIA closed down -120 points.
On Friday, the DJIA closed down -86 points.
For the week:
-Gold closed at $936.50/oz +16.50 for the week. Last week gold closed at $920.00, and was trading at $975.00 two weeks ago.
I have said that Gold at $1000/oz looked very overbought. Once central bankers stop money pumping into the economy, I think a substantial correction in Gold will occur.
-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 394.54, up from 388.30 last week, but down from 412.69 two weeks ago.
The previous weeks sell-off in commodities was one of the largest corrections in the index in over 25 years. Last weeks bounce may prove to be an oversold rally, but longer term commodities looks like a great investment.
-Crude Oil closed at $105.62 /bbl down from $101.84 last week.
I still believe we will see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead. This is why I refuse to overweight oil in the ETF portfolio despite of the current rankings in our system.
If Crude oil and commodity prices do not correct sharply soon the US economy will remain in serious trouble.
-The U.S. Dollar close at 71.61 down from 72.75 last week, but up from 70.70 two weeks ago.
The dollar has dropped to new all-time lows because of large account deficits, and rate cuts by the Fed.
Our current asset allocation is as follows;
70% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
60% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
50% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
30% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
10% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative
