Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
SWITCHES:
None
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of May 12th:
1) EWZ: Brazil Index- .484
2) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .442
3) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .465
4) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .480
5) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .431
6) ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .353
7) OIH: Oil Services HOLDRS- .380
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .279
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated
Honorable Mention:
None
Notes:
In our daily "Journal" we have mentioned The "North American Union" several times. As I combed through our ETF research for the week, astoundingly the rankings of the CurrencyShares Mexican Peso Trust (FXM) are ranked #27 out of 439 ETF's listed, and the CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) is ranked #45.
What this tells me is there is a leveling of the playing field among the currencies in North America, and the answer to our dollar woes- The Amero- may be in the not so distant future.
To get Americans to accept the currency change, the powers behind this currency shift are drumming up support by causing Americans "extreme pain" at the gas pumps. Once the Amero is implemented, the pain will subside, and Americans will see the new currency as as welcomed relief. Unbelievable!
Amero Videos:
Dick Cheney- David Rockefeller
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for May 2008:
1) FSESX- Energy Services
2) FNARX: Natural Resources
3) FDFAX: Consumer Staples
4) FSENX- Energy
5) FSCHX: Chemicals
6) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
7) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
8) FSDPX: Materials
9) FWRLX- Wireless
10) FSRBX: Banking
Honorable Mention (Holds):
FSDAX: Defense & Aerospace
The Week in Review:
Stocks gave back most of what they gained last month as the Dow dropped 2.40%, the S&P 500 fell 1.77%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.25%. Oil spiked to $126 per barrel, and gasoline rose to $3.67 a gallon.
U.S. consumers are clearly feeling "real pain" as the price of oil, gasoline, and food continued to skyrocket.
A deteriorating housing market and declining earnings continue to add additional risk to the overall market.
Chain-store sales for April were up 3.6%, but the majority of the gains were from purchases of food and gasoline. Since these are necessary items, one can assume discretionary spending is all but dead.
Wall Street wants you to believe that the welfare checks (economic stimulus package) will boost the economy, and the two of the three stooges (Hilary and McCain) running for president are calling for a gas tax holiday.
Why aren't these people calling for the halt of oil purchases for the Strategic Petroleum Reserves?
Delaying the official announcement of a recession is foolish. But in reality, so may of the economic numbers have been watered down that no one really knows the real health of our nation economy.
Since no one in Washington rubs shoulders with everyday Americans (I do), I can tell you as we speak that the US economy is in the middle of a recession.
The housing market is in a deep recession, food and energy costs have soared, and debt is piling higher and higher.
Earnings:
Thus far, a total of 2807 companies having reported their Q1-08 results. Earnings fell on average -26% from the same quarter last year. In comparison, Q3-07 fell -21%, and Q4-07 earnings fell -57%.
Economic Reports:
On Monday, the Institute of Supply Management's non-manufacturing or service index moved out of contraction territory above 50 with a reading of 52 in April.
On Wednesday, pending home sales fell another 1% in March.
This Week's Economic Reports:
Monday:
April U.S. Budget Balance (expected -$160 billion) previous -$48.4 billion.
Tuesday:
April Import Prices (expected 1.5%) previous 2.8%
April retail & food sales (previous 0.2%) and retail & food ex-autos (previous 0.1%).
Wednesday:
April Consumer Price Index (previous 0.3%), CPI ex-food & energy (previous 0.2%).
Thursday:
March Treasury International Capital Flows (previous $60.1 billion)
May Philadelphia Fed Business Index (previous -24.9), May NAHB Housing Market Index (previous 20).
Friday:
April Housing Starts (previous -11.9%).
For the week:
-Gold closed at $885.80/oz -31.70 for the week. Last week gold closed at $858.00, and was trading at $889.70 two weeks ago.
-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 427.48, way up from 408.13 last week, and up from 417.80 two weeks ago.
-Crude Oil closed at $125.96 /bbl up from $116.32 last week, and up from $118.52 two weeks ago..
We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Since I believe a correction is in the works, I will not overweight oil in the ETF portfolio at this time. Oil has remained above $100 for the ninth consecutive week.
If Crude oil and commodity prices do not correct sharply, the US economy will remain in serious trouble.
-The U.S. Dollar closed at 73.05 down from 73.53 last week, and up from 72.80 two weeks ago.
The dollar has dropped to new all-time lows because of large account deficits, and rate cuts by the Fed. Once the rate cuts come to an end, I am looking for a decent rally in the dollar.
Our current asset allocation is as follows;
70% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
60% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
50% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
30% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
10% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative
