Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
SWITCHES:
None
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of May 19th:
1) EWZ: Brazil Index- .451
2) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .413
3) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .465
4) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .492
5) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .455
6) ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .330
7) OIH: Oil Services HOLDRS- .341
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .223
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated
Honorable Mention:
None
Notes:
For several weeks now, we have not made any changes to the DG ETF portfolio. Bonds, stuff stocks (commodities, metals, etc), and oil have dominated the top rankings and appear too overbought for new investment.
On the other hand, Brazil, Agriculture, and select South American appear to have more room to run.
Agriculture is benefiting from a world food shortage due in part to a questionable energy policy here in the US.
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for May 2008:
1) FSESX- Energy Services
2) FNARX: Natural Resources
3) FDFAX: Consumer Staples
4) FSENX- Energy
5) FSCHX: Chemicals
6) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
7) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
8) FSDPX: Materials
9) FWRLX- Wireless
10) FSRBX: Banking
Honorable Mention (Holds):
FSDAX: Defense & Aerospace
The Week in Review:
I am in Sarasota, FL writing this report. My sons high school baseball team is in the state final four, and is two games away from the state championship. As such, I will be cutting this weeks report a little short.
If the parents on this road trip are any indicator of the public in general, they are very mis-informed about what is really going on in the economy, and energy prices in particular. This is to be expected since their main sources for information is the major media outlets.
On Friday, the EIA and Bush Administration announced they would temporarily halt new oil purchases to the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) in July. We shouldn't find this as a surprise since the news comes a little more than 6 months from the November elections.
While halting new purchases to the SPR will give consumers "some" relief from high energy prices, voters are very upset with what they are paying. As such, I believe the incumbents are in serious trouble, and the outcome of the election will heavily favor the democrats.
If the congressional races are any indicator, republican candidates will continue to drop like flies.
This being said, many underground media sources are reporting that all three presidential candidates (John McCain (R-Ariz.), Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.)) are all bought and paid for, meaning not much will change despite the outcome.
At the recent Trilateral Commission meeting in Washington (April 25- 28), elite luminaries expressed confidence that free trade agreements will remain intact. One of the comments captured by the American Free Press went as follows;
“John (McCain) has always supported free trade, even while campaigning before union leaders,” said one. “Hil (Clinton)and Barack (Obama) are pretending to be unhappy about some things, but that’s merely political posturing. They’re solidly in support.”
Some believe those of us in finance can make accurate predictions about the markets and economy by simply following news on the economy. This is not true. The larger trends are set by governmental policy (energy, taxes, free trade, etc), and these things eventually affect the consumer (higher prices, taxes, jobs lost or gained).
Earnings:
Q1-08 earnings ended it sixth week. Of the 3569 companies reporting, earnings have dropped -28% compared to the same quarter a year ago.
For the week:
-Gold closed at $899.90/oz +14.10 for the week. Last week gold closed at $885.80, and was trading at $858.00 two weeks ago.
-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 426.43, down slightly from 427.48 last week, but up from 408.13 two weeks ago.
-Crude Oil closed at $126.04 /bbl up from $125.96last week, and up from $116.32 two weeks ago..
We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Since I believe a correction is in the works, I will not overweight oil in the ETF portfolio at this time. Oil has remained above $100 for the tenth consecutive week.
If Crude oil and commodity prices do not correct sharply, the US economy will remain in serious trouble.
-The U.S. Dollar closed at 72.82 down from 73.05 last week, and down from 73.53 two weeks ago.
The dollar has dropped to new all-time lows because of large account deficits, and rate cuts by the Fed. Some believe the rate cuts have come to an end, and the dollar is attempting to rally. A strong rally will help drive energy prices lower
Our current asset allocation is as follows;
70% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
60% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
50% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
30% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
10% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative

