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Dynamic Growth: May 5th, 2008 Briefing

Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio

NEW BUYS:

None

NEW SELLS:

None

SWITCHES:

None

Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of May 5th:

1) EWZ: Brazil Index- .494
2) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .467
3) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .462
4) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .439
5) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .386
6) ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .376
7) OIH: Oil Services HOLDRS- .339
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .279
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated

Honorable Mention:

None

Notes:

On Friday, after the jobs and unemployment reports were released, bonds began to sell off and the dollar rallied.

While we are happy with the jump in the Brazilian index, we feel that bonds, commodities, and oil, are due for a sharp pullback while the dollar has some room to run on the upside. Longer term though, any sharp corrections in commodities and oil should be viewed as good long term buying opportunities.


Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for May 2008:

1) FSESX- Energy Services
2) FNARX: Natural Resources
3) FDFAX: Consumer Staples
4) FSENX- Energy
5) FSCHX: Chemicals
6) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
7) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
8) FSDPX: Materials
9) FWRLX- Wireless
10) FSRBX: Banking

Honorable Mention (Holds):

FSDAX: Defense & Aerospace


The Week in Review:

Its become very clear that the tailwinds that drove the US economy from 2003-2007 have now become headwinds. Of course I am talking about Real Estate and the availability of all the credit that had been extracted to fuel consumer purchases.

What I believe we are looking at is a traders market. Long term investors will become extremely frustrated as the major market indexes will probably seesaw between the upper end of the trading range to the lower end many times.

As it currently stands, the markets are now attempting to test the upper end of the trading range.

Savvy investors who don't mind paying short term capital gains will be able to buy the dips, sell the rallies, short, cover, and repeat the process several times.

The US dollar is being destroyed, and the nightmare scenario of oil producing nations rejecting the dollar as payment for oil has already begun. This is one reason why gold and commodities have rallied so sharply. These assets are viewed as the best hedges against a falling dollar and inflation.

Longer term (2-5 years), I believe the solution for the dollars woes will occur according to plan. Americans will be screaming for mercy as oil prices become unaffordable, and commodity prices cause food prices to spike even higher.

The solution of course is the one I have mentioned many times; replacing the dollar with a new North American Currency- The Amero. Once this happens, the implementation of the North American Union will be well underway.

Here is a video of VP Dick Cheney discussing the issue along with David Rockefeller.

Keep in mind I have no political statements to make when I reveal this information to you. I am of the opinion that both political parties are well aware of what is going on without any major opposition. I just don't want you to be the last to know what is happening around you, your country, and the sovereignty of the United States.

To be an astute investor, you must understand much of what is going on around you. Investing is not just about buying the right stock, it is having the ability to see the big picture, and understanding why certain things are happening around you. Without this understanding, you are guessing instead of knowing.

When word of a European Union first broke, citizens of the twenty-seven member states had pretty much the same reaction as you will when the Amero is introduced. Now, of the twenty-seven member states in the European Union, 15 of those member states have adopted the Euro as their currency.

Here in the US there will be a lot of opposition to the Amero. But, as in any other time of extreme economic pain, citizens will be more open to change if that change alleviates pain.

As we speak the US consumer is beginning to feel some real pain. Job growth in non-existent, food and energy prices are spiking, and the availability of credit has dried up. You know our citizens are hurting when lenders created and began marketing Reverse Mortgages to our nations seniors.

The Markets

The major market indexes moved higher last week after the FOMC lowered the Fed Funds and Discount Rates .25 basis points to 2%. Investors focused on the possibility that the Wednesday rate cut may be the last.

Immediately after the cut, the dollar began to rally and oil prices started to drop. The DJIA gained 190 points closing above 13000 for the first time since January. As the Dow moved higher, volume on the NYSE remained subdued which usually isn't a bullish sign. Lower volume rallies shows a lack of commitment from buyers.

Given the intervention by the "Working Group on Financial Markets", every sell-off has been met with resistance. This tells me that investors-speculators-hedge funds may give up on their shorts and possibly drive the markets higher as we go into the November elections.

Politicians, and the powers that back them do some very strange things around election time. Case in point, did you see how the potentially embarrassing issues of the DC Madam were dealt with prior to a big election?

‘D.C. Madam’ commits suicide

The DC Madam's List

Fox News- Gerald Rivera- Alex Jones- YouTube

Alex Jones- YouTube

Do you remember the quote from the movie The Godfather-1972, part one. Michael is walking down the road with Kay after returning from Sicily. He is trying to get her to give him another chance to marry him. She was reluctant and here is how the conversation went.

Michael: My dad is no different than any powerful man; like a senator or president.

Kay: Michael. Do you know how naive you sound? Senators and presidents don't have people killed!

Michael: Now who's being naive, Kay?

Bottom line: Strange things happen during election years. I believe some of those strange things will occur in the oil and commodities markets as well.

Earnings

We are half way through Q1 earnings season. Thus far, 2058 companies having reported and on average earnings are down 19% from Q1-07.

Economic Reports

On Tuesday, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices for the 10-city composite index fell 13.6% in February from a year ago.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell for the fourth consecutive month with a reading of 48.3.

Construction spending in March continued to decline dropping 1.1% down from 0.3% in February.

The number of jobs lost in April came in at 20,000, better than the 80,000 reported in March. The consensus estimate was for a loss of 75,000 jobs.

This Week's Economic Reports


Monday- April ISM Non-Manufacturing (Service) Index (previous 49.6).

Wednesday- Q1-08 Productivity (preliminary), previous 1.9%, March Pending Home Sales Index (previous -1.9%), March Consumer Credit (previous $5.28 billion).

Thursday- March Wholesale Trade (previous 1.1%).

Friday- March Trade Balance (previous $62.3 billion).


For the week:

-Gold closed at $858.00/oz -31.70 for the week. Last week gold closed at $889.70, and was trading at $915.20 two weeks ago.

I have said that Gold at $1000/oz looked much overbought.

-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 408.13, down from 417.80 last week, but up from 419.36 two weeks ago.

-Crude Oil closed at $116.32 /bbl down from $118.52 last week, and up from $116.16 two weeks ago..

We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Since I believe a correction is in the works, I will not overweight oil in the ETF portfolio at this time. Oil has remained above $100 for the eighth consecutive week.

If Crude oil and commodity prices do not correct sharply, the US economy will remain in serious trouble.

-The U.S. Dollar closed at 73.53up from 72.80 last week, and up from 71.98 two weeks ago.

The dollar has dropped to new all-time lows because of large account deficits, and rate cuts by the Fed. Once the rate cuts come to an end, I am looking for a decent rally in the dollar.

Our current asset allocation is as follows;

70% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
60% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
50% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
30% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
10% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.