"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

Folks, if past CNBC market tickers are an indicator, then the verdict is in. A few short months ago CNBC had a window above the TV screen touting, "Points above all time high". A few months later the DJIA fell from 14118 in October 2007 to a low of 11634 (-2484 points or 17.59%) in January 2008.

The new ticker above the window on the TV screen now reads "America's Energy Crisis". Alert contrarians will see this as a sign to sell energy, or at least take profits and come back another day.

David Herro, chief investment officer for Harris Associates said Supply/demand fundamentals simply don't support oil at current prices, he says, predicting crude will tumble back into the $60-$80 per barrel range in the next 24 months.

Herro was named one of SmartMoney's "World's Greatest Investors" of 2007. He also said commodities are a bubble ripe for popping, with oil most vulnerable to a big downtown. "Just like tech fans in the early part of the 2000s, energy bulls will get burned", Herro said.

If you stop and think about it, the power brokers for oil do not want to see a mass exodus from oil and into alternative energy. Sure, alternative energy sounds good, and in its early development stage gives people hope, but as was the case in past energy crisis, something always comes along and brings energy prices back to an affordable range. When this happened in the past, energy alternatives and innovations were abandoned.

Case in point;

My comments come from an understanding of what has happened in the past, and Wall Street wants us to believe "it is different this time". While I can't rule out that it may really be different this time, history shows it never has been in the past.

Solar:

During the Carter years, solar panels were placed on the roof of the White House. When Ronald Reagan took office, he said, get that crap off my roof. During those same years, the "green movement" convinced people to buy solar panels for their homes. Many in California did, and others across the nation did not take the bait. My neighbors across the street had solar panels on the roof of their garage in 1990-1992. In 1993 the new owners took them down.

Wind:

Southern California (Lajolla) has had huge wind farms in place since the last energy crisis. The new "green movement" came out of nowhere, but has become the new mantra for corporate America.

While there is money to be made in wind as the alternative energy craze continues, my question is what happens if all of the "it is different this time" assertions turn out to be false. Its happened in the past is my point.

Oil Shale in Colorado:

During the oil crisis in 1980, Exxon spent $5 billion on the Colony Oil Shale Project in Colorado. Two years later, oil prices declined, and May 2, 1982 became known as "Black Sunday" when Exxon abandoned the project, laid off 2,000 workers, and left behind a trail of foreclosures and empty oil shale mines.

My point is obvious, and I may be wrong, but I don't see new solutions, just the old ones rearing their ugly heads.

Conclusion:

I believe a huge sell-off is coming for oil and commodities. I base my conclusion on the fact that the oil people who have controlled us for many years do not want to give up that control by way of alternative energy.

I believe in the golden rule. He who has the gold rules. You can control the masses by controlling the price of oil. If oil no longer becomes a controlling factor, then masses cannot continue to be controlled.

This being said, oil prices can remain high a little longer, but I believe oil prices will fall, alternatives will be abandoned, and the golden rule will prevail.

I realize my view points sounds remote, but so did my call on real estate in 2005, and my call for $3.00-$4.00 gas prices in 2003.