Subscribe!
Who is John Mugarian? What is Dynamic Growth? Customer Service Contact Home
The Journal Reports Questions and Answers Newsletter Portfolio Links


« Dynamic Growth: June 2, 2008 Briefing | Main | Bird's Eye View: Wednesday, June 4, 2008- Setting is up for a market rally? »

Bird's Eye View: Tuesday, June 3, 2008- Doug Kass is right!

birdseye.jpg

"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

One of my favorite market gurus is famed hedge fund manager, Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners. Doug is a frequent columnist for TheStreet.com- The Edge.

Recently, Doug became bullish on bank stocks after being a full blown bear since 2005.

Here is Doug's article entitled "I'm Putting My Money in the Banks". Oh, and by the way, so am I.

Being a contrarian means being optimistic while others are pessimistic. This fits my personality, and supports my slightly dyslexic condition as well. Believe it or not, I read better from right to left than I do from left to right.

While I struggled early in life, I learned to adjust. This condition also taught me to look at both sides of every issue. Looking at the opposing side of what is beginning touted has served me well.

I am always amazed when I ask for a person's opinion on a topic (Middle East, Oil, Politics, Stocks, etc.) and the answer I always get is what the media mantra is at the time. This tells me that the publics thought process begins and ends with what they see on TV and read in the paper. In my view, these are very shallow opinions.

Now, if a person got their news from the US media, and cross referenced what they saw and read with other media outlets around the world, then I would consider someones opinion to be thoroughly researched.

This being said, how does someone as successful as Doug Kass say the bank stocks are a buy, when conventional wisdom (the other gurus on TV) tells us they're not?

In 2005, the gurus (excluding Kass) were telling us to buy the financials, real estate, and the home builders. Today, the gurus wouldn't touch them with a ten foot pole.

Here is another contrarian indicator. Today, in a well orchestrated fashion, GM CEO Rick Wagoner said the company plans to close four American truck plants, and focus instead on producing smaller cars. Their belief is oil prices will remain high, and trucks as well as large sport-utility vehicles are a thing of the past.

In 2003-2005 GM was singing a different tune. Could GM's strategy shift be marking the highs for oil? And, as was the case in the 1970's, will oil prices decline from here?

As I was a few months ago, I am siding with the contrary opinion that bank stocks are not going away, and a few years from now, will lead the stock market to new highs.

In the Dynamic Growth ETF and Fidelity Select Sector Fund Portfolio's, as investors, we remain positive on the financials.

Long:

KBE: KBW Bank ETF
IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector
FSRBX: Banking
FSVLX: Home Finance

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.