Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of June 23th:
1) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .421
2) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .460
3) EWZ: Brazil Index- .405
4) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .390
5) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .480
6) ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .235
7) DUG: Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares- Not Rated
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .116
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for June 2008
1) FSENX- Energy
2) FSCHX: Chemicals
3) FDFAX: Consumer Staples
4) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
5) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
6) FSDAX: Defense & Aerospace
7) FWRLX- Wireless
8) FCYIX: Industrials
9) FSRBX: Banking
10) FSVLX: Home Finance
Honorable Mention (Holds):
None
The Week in Review:
We are not making any changes to our DG portfolios this week. Given the focus on reducing energy costs before the November elections, politicians are scrambling to fix the problem. After closing just below $140/bbl the week before, crude oil ended the week at $134.71, up slightly from the prior weeks close of $134.40.
Saudi Arabia made the rumors of production increases official by saying it would raise oil output by 200,000 bbl/ day, and increase it even more if needed.
The president of OPEC blamed the $135 price of oil on speculators, and that the "concern over future oil supply is not a new phenomenon".
Oil consumption is declining as we speak. China just raised oil prices by 18%, Congress is considering tightening the requirements to trade oil futures, and Ford and GM are shutting down production of big cars and SUV's.
The trend is clear, lower consumption leads to lower profits for the "big boys". Look for oil prices to decline starting in July.
Another issue on the table is finding a cure for the US mortgage mess. Politicians are working on a deal where FHA will guarantee $300 billion in risky loans. The President is threatening to veto the bill because banks would have to take additional losses to get the deal done. This being said, I'm confident something will be worked out to cure the problem.
In other news, last week the Royal Bank of Scotland said to "brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks". While they may be right, crashes usually don't occur when everyone expects one.
Several technical market gurus are now calling for the DJIA to reach a reactionary low of 10000 by the fall. Given all that has happened to the economy, Dow 10000 shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone.
For several months we have been riding the inflation wave with investments in Agriculture, Energy, Staples and Commodities. In the months ahead, I believe the leaders in the market place will eventually correct, and become laggards.
Here are the leaders that I feel are over extended, and due for a sharp correction;
Bonds
Commodities
Energy
Foreign Currencies
Dollar Bear funds
Metals & Mining
I have taken profits in some of the above holdings, and have added exposure to the laggards which are;
Banking
Home Finance
These are controversial picks, and I expect to hold these positions for at least the next 2-3 years. Looking forward, I believe the upside in these sectors are huge.
For the week:
-Gold closed at $903.60/oz +30.60 for the week. Last week gold closed at $873.10, and was trading at $899.00 two weeks ago.
-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 455.38, up from 445.87 last week, and up from 441.51 two weeks ago.
-Crude Oil closed at $135.36/bbl down from $135.47 last week, and up from $138.54 two weeks ago..
We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Oil has remained above $100 for fourteen consecutive weeks.
-The U.S. Dollar closed at 73.05 down from 74.13 last week, and down from 72.38 two weeks ago.
Some believe the rate cuts have come to an end, and the dollar is attempting to rally. A strong rally in the dollar will help drive energy prices lower.
Our current asset allocation is as follows;
70% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
60% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
50% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
30% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
10% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative

