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Dynamic Growth: June 30, 2008 Briefing

If you and I could sit down with 100 of the most devious minds in the world, and could put together a plan on how to inflict as much damage as we possibly could on the U.S. economy, we could not devise a more dastardly plan than what is currently being implemented.

1) The administrations energy plan is a disaster. Adding oil to the SPR over the last 7 years, the corn based ethanol mandate, allowing speculators to drive up energy prices, and constant threats of expanding the war in the Middle East is killing the U.S. economy.

Short sellers of oil are running for cover causing prices to spike above the $140/bbl mark.

Higher food and energy costs are making consumers choose between eating and commuting, versus paying down credit cards, lines of credit and auto loans.

2) The mortgage and credit crisis damage is beyond comprehension. The availability of credit and lax lending standards have led to a flood of foreclosures, and massive overbuilding nationwide.

3) A terrible fiscal and monetary policy is bankrupting the country, and causing the U.S. dollar to nosedive driving energy prices higher, and inflation to reach nightmarish levels. As far as monetary policy is concerned, the Fed is fighting a losing battle.

4) NAFTA, CAFTA, outsourcing, and the development of the North American Union has cost millions of Americans their jobs.

Some of the damage from the events above could be alleviated with a the bursting of the oil and commodity bubbles.

At this stage of the game, I believe energy, basic materials, metals, and most commodities are extremely over extended, and overdue for a sharp correction.

Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio

NEW BUYS:

None

NEW SELLS:

None

Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of June 30th:

1) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .523
2) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .500
3) EWZ: Brazil Index- .434
4) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .410
5) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .334
6) ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .277
7) DUG: Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares- Not Rated
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .116
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated

Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for July 2008

1) FSCHX: Chemicals
2) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
3) FDFAX: Consumer Staples
4) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
5) FCYIX: Industrials
6) FSPTX: Technology Portfolio
7) FSCSX: Computers & Software
8) FWRLX- Wireless
9) FSRBX: Banking
10) FSVLX: Home Finance

NEW BUYS:

FSCSX: Computers & Software
FSPTX: Technology Portfolio

NEW SELLS:

FSENX- Energy
FSDAX: Defense & Aerospace

Honorable Mention (Holds):

None

The Week in Review:

Stocks fell last week as energy prices spiked, and more bad news was released from the financial sector. Despite last weeks bearish market action, the Market Volatility Index (VIX) failed to rise to the fear levels seen in January and March.

During periods of extreme bearishness, the VIX spiked north of 31 when the Dow last bottomed. Last week, the VIX rose to 23.44 from 22.87 the prior week which tells us there is more downside to go for the major market averages.

June had its worst monthly decline since the Great Depression.

Earnings for the quarter are down 30% on average thus far. This compares to a drop of 57% for Q4-07, a 21% drop for Q3-07 and a rise of 13% for Q2-07.

Last week, UPS warned that second quarter earnings would disappoint, blaming higher fuel costs and a sluggish U.S. economy. Dow Chemical said it will raise prices by another 25% in July because of rising fuel costs.

American Express said that its customers were falling behind on their debt at a faster rate than anticipated.

For the week:

-Gold closed at $931.30/oz +27.60 for the week. Last week gold closed at $903.60, and was trading at $873.10 two weeks ago.

-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 464.40, up from 455.38 last week, and up from 445.87 two weeks ago.

-Crude Oil closed at $140.21/bbl up from $135.36last week, and up from $135.47 two weeks ago..

We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Oil has remained above $100 for fourteen consecutive weeks.

-The U.S. Dollar closed at 72.29 down from 73.05 last week, and down from 74.13 two weeks ago.

Some believe the rate cuts have come to an end, and the dollar is attempting to rally. A strong rally in the dollar will help drive energy prices lower.

Our current asset allocation is as follows;

70% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
60% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
50% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
30% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
10% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative

If, and when the DJIA drops below 11,300, we will add another 5% to our allocations across the board. The next 5% increase will come at DJIA 10,600 for Aggressive, and Moderately Aggressive portfolios.

Moderate, Moderately Conservative, and Conservative investors are not advised to get fully invested unless the DJIA breaks below the 10000 mark.

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.