"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

Oil prices are dropping, the financials are stabilizing, and the market is rallying. All things considered, traders should have a lot of fun in the short term.

Having lived through the 1970's, and been an investor since 1974, I can tell you my gut is saying this is not a buy and hold market.

The recovery we are witnessing marks the half way point of a "W" shaped recovery. The first leg down came as a result of an over leveraged consumer, bad debt, bad loans, and a credit crisis caused by an enormous real estate bubble.

Now that the GSE bill has been passed, and is ready for the President to sign, the bleeding in the financial sector will finally come to an end.

The next, and final leg down for the economy and the stock market will happen when the Fed raises interest rates to fight inflation. This tightening cycle will help shore up the dollar, and bring energy and commodities prices down sharply. The big question is how high will rates have to go before the Fed achieves its goal of reigning in inflation.

After the November elections (mid 2009), the Fed will probably begin raising interest rates. Before they do, I would suggest holding a decent amount of cash on the sidelines to buy stocks and bonds during the final stage of this market downturn.

So, do I believe the bear market is over? No, and as Yogi Berra said, "It Ain't Over Til It's Over".