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Dynamic Growth: July 7, 2008 Briefing

Wall Street has given every investor multiple reasons to be bearish. Oil prices are sky high, the housing market is in a depression, banks are in trouble, and consumers are broke. Guess what? Things are about to change!

That's right, the Wall Street spin doctors have got you right where they want you. Let me ask a simple question. If oil prices were to drop $50/ bbl over the next three months, what would that do for the economy? Don't you think we would have a massive rally in stocks?

Oh, I know, there is no way oil prices will drop because you have heard on the news that Israel is getting ready to attack Iran, right? I doubt very seriously that Israel would threaten their very existence, and start WWIII in the process.

My bet is Israels show of force is just that, a show. I believe oil prices are coming down sharply as we head into the 2008 presidential election. I believe financials and cyclicals will lead the market higher on prospects for a better economy as a result of lower energy prices.

For those of you who have followed my blog, you know I was bearish in 2006 when everyone else was bullish. I am not convinced that the rally I am calling for is the start of a new bull market, but I am convinced a rally of 10% or more could occur at any time, and without warning.

I call these election year moves, magic! It is amazing to watch what happens to the markets during the second half of a presidential election year. Over the past 100 years, the DJIA has gained an average of 9.7% during the second half of a presidential election year.

Let the magic begin !

Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio

NEW BUYS:

DDM: Ultra Dow 30 Proshares ETF

NEW SELLS:

ADRE: BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund- .264

Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of July 7th:

1) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .508
2) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .415
3) EWZ: Brazil Index- .411
4) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .355
5) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .331
6) DDM: Ultra Dow 30 Proshares ETF- Not Rated
7) DUG: Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares- Not Rated
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .116
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated

Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for July 2008

1) FSCHX: Chemicals
2) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
3) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
4) FCYIX: Industrials
5) FSPTX: Technology Portfolio
6) FSCSX: Computers & Software
7) FSCPX: Consumer Discretionary
8) FWRLX- Wireless
9) FSRBX: Banking
10) FSVLX: Home Finance

NEW BUYS:

FSCPX: Consumer Discretionary

NEW SELLS:

FDFAX: Consumer Staples

Honorable Mention (Holds):

None

The Week in Review:

Can it really get ant worse? Sure it could, but calls for a market cease fire are being heard. The response should be a sharp rally in the stock market until warnings of Fed tightenings take hold after the election.

Last week, crude oil continued to hit record highs topping around $144 before Friday's pullback. Threats of an Israeli attack on Iran helped push the black greasy stuff to new heights.

The constantly wrong analysts on Wall Street began suggesting that General Motors could go bankrupt, and Ford said that their June sales tanked 28%.

Also hit on rising oil prices were the airlines. To counter the rising cost of jet fuel, the airlines began tacking on fuel charges to tickets. Oddly, when famed investor Jim Rogers was asked by Bloomberg what he was buying, he said "the airlines". How's that for a contrarian pick?

The economy also showed weakness last week as employers cut jobs again in June, marking the sixth straight month payrolls have declined. The unemployment now stands at 5.5%, which means the U.S. has lost 438,000 jobs this year.

For the week:

-Gold closed at $933.60/oz +2.30 for the week. Last week gold closed at $931.30, and was trading at $903.60 two weeks ago.

-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 472.36, up from 464.40 last week, and up from 455.38 two weeks ago.

-Crude Oil closed at $145.29/bbl up from $140.21last week, and up from $135.36 two weeks ago..

We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Oil has remained above $100 for fifteen consecutive weeks.

-The U.S. Dollar closed at 72.72 up from 72.29 last week, and down from 73.05 two weeks ago.

Some believe the rate cuts have come to an end, and the dollar is attempting to rally. A strong rally in the dollar will help drive energy prices lower.

We raised our allocations last week by 5% across the board when the DJIA dropped below our 11,300 target. Going forward, the next 5% increase will come at DJIA 10,600 for Aggressive, and Moderately Aggressive portfolios, but Moderate, Moderately Conservative, and Conservative investors are not advised to get fully invested unless the DJIA breaks below the 10000 mark.

Our current asset allocation is as follows;

75% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
65% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
55% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
35% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
15% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.