The financial media can lose you a lot of money. In mid to late 2007 they were touting the "Goldilocks" economy, and a few short months ago you were hearing how Gold was going to $1600 an ounce, Brazil, Russia, India, and China were going to dominate the world, and oil was going to $200/bbl.
In 2005 I told you the real estate market would collapse. In 2006, I told you the U.S. economy was going to go into a tailspin. In 2007, we went heavily into cash. And in 2008, I said the stock market was headed for a nasty fall, we sold oil at its highs, and that solutions to the current financial crisis would eventually appear.
Watching the interventionists over the years, I was convinced oil prices were going to fall as we got closer to the November presidential elections. I base my predictions on the assumption that capitalism in the modern financial ERA is run by organized groups that change the rules of the game for their own political and monetary gain.

In November, an unsuspecting electorate will choose between two candidates that follow the rules of the game that have been predetermined by these organized groups.
Our job is not to change the status quo. This we cannot do. Our job is to predict what they will do next.
Those of us who seek financial independence are in a constant battle with the financial interests of Wall Street bankers and their corporate friends whose purpose is to bog us down with debt, and to maintain their economic power over the little guy.
If you understand the rules of the game, use some common sense, you can side-step a lot of land mines. I will do my best to help.
Dynamic Growth: ETF Portfolio
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
Here are our Top 10 ETF's for the week of August 12th:
1) DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- .255
2) EWZ: Brazil Index- .295
3) SLX: Market Vectors Steel Index Fund- .285
4) FXF: Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust- .250
5) EEB: Claymore ETF BNY BRIC- .234
6) DDM: Ultra Dow 30 Proshares ETF- Not Rated
7) DUG: Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares- Not Rated
8) PGJ: PS Golden Dragon China Fund- .112
9) KBE: KBW Bank ETF- Not Rated
10) IYF: iShares Dow Jones US Financial Sector- Not Rated
Here are our Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds for August 2008
1) FSCHX: Chemicals
2) FSMEX: Medical Equipment
3) FSCGX: Industrial Equipment
4) FCYIX: Industrials
5) FSPTX: Technology Portfolio
6) FSCSX: Computers & Software
7) FSCPX: Consumer Discretionary
8) FWRLX- Wireless
9) FSRBX: Banking
10) FSVLX: Home Finance
NEW BUYS:
None
NEW SELLS:
None
Honorable Mention (Holds):
None
The Week in Review:
Over the past 30 days the big story has been the drop in oil and commodity prices. I am not sure if the drop in oil is for real, or manufactured because of the election and the Olympics in Beijing. Right now, I have my doubts that oil prices are dropping due to sustainable demand destruction. Here are a few thoughts on the subject;
1) The drop in oil prices could be due to fears a democratic candidate would aggressively pursue new alternatives for energy over the long term. These alternatives would be wind, solar, nuclear, and fuel cell technology.
2) The drop in oil prices could be due to temporary measures taken by the Chinese to reduce industrial pollution by 70% during the Olympics. If this is the main reason for falling oil prices, we need to view the sell-off as a correction, and not a longer term trend.
3) The drop in oil prices could be due to temporary measures taken by the interventionists prior to an important presidential election.
4) Here in the U.S., we are being told that the drop in oil prices is due to "demand destruction". While I believe consumers are using less gasoline, I don't buy this as the real reason for falling oil prices.
Here is what I believe. Oil is a product that can control the lives of large masses of people.
Henry Kissinger has been quoted saying;
"Control the oil and you control entire nations; control the food and you control the people."
Oddly, the world is experiencing higher oil prices, and worldwide food shortages. Makes you think, doesn't it?
Every 10-15 we have an oil crisis that ratchets up the price of gasoline to a new level. When oil and gas prices shoot up to a new level that creates a panic, eventually prices settle in at a new and higher level that consumers can afford.
Recently gas prices hit over $4.00/ gallon which was viewed as extreme. If gas prices eventually settle in at $2.50/ gallon, consumers would see this as welcomed relief, and the oil gang would achieve their goal of higher levels for the price gas.
If oil prices drop to a price (but at a higher level) that becomes affordable for consumers, all the alternative energy solutions will be abandoned as they were in the past. But, if the growth in China and India are for real, and China revives their massive growth after the Olympics, then oil and commodity prices are heading higher.
For now, enjoy the rally. We will have a clearer view on the markets after the Olympics and the November elections.
For the Week:
INDU :11,734.32/ +408.00
SPX : 1,296.32/ +36.01
COMP: 2414.10/ +103.14
The stock market received good news from falling oil and commodity prices, and the Fed's decision to keep interest rates at current levels.
-Gold closed at $864.80/oz -52.70 for the week. Last week gold closed at $917.50, and was trading at $936.90 two weeks ago.
-The Commodities CRB Index closed at 387.42, down from 416.02 last week, and down from 412.22 two weeks ago.
-Crude Oil closed at $115.20/bbl down from $125.10 last week, and down from $123.26 two weeks ago..
We need to see $75-$85/ barrel oil in the weeks ahead to get the economy back on track. Oil has remained above $100 for nineteen consecutive weeks.
-The U.S. Dollar closed at 75.86 up from 73.44 last week, and up from 72.85 two weeks ago.
Some believe the rate cuts have come to an end, and the dollar is attempting to rally. A strong rally in the dollar will help drive energy prices lower.
We raised our allocations last week by 5% across the board when the DJIA dropped below our 11,300 target. Going forward, the next 5% increase will come at DJIA 10,600 for Aggressive, and Moderately Aggressive portfolios, but Moderate, Moderately Conservative, and Conservative investors are not advised to get fully invested unless the DJIA breaks below the 10,000 mark.
Our current asset allocation is as follows;
75% Equities: (Normally 95%) Aggressive
65% Equities: (Normally 80%) Moderately Aggressive
55% Equities: (Normally 60%) Moderate
35% Equities: (Normally 40%) Moderately Conservative
15% Equities: (Normally 20%) Conservative

