"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey
NEW SELL TODAY:
We are selling the (DUG) Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares immediately at a price of $41.30, a gain of 48.2%
Is the DJIA headed toward the 10,000 level? If most technical analysts are correct, then yes we are.
Market technicians are in agreement that the stock market entered a multi-year period of range bound price action. After violating a major uptrend in 2001 the major market indexes have entered into a multi-year trading range. If this trend continues, investors that dollar cost average in during periods of weakness, and take profits during periods of strength can be amply rewarded.
While the DJIA went on to make new all time highs in 2007, the SPX barely reached new heights, and the NASDAQ remained well below its March 200 peak.
Investors willing to play the multi-year trading range must be prepared to enter the market on declines of 10%,15%, 20%, or more in hopes that the markets will once again trade back to their cyclical highs.
Buy and hold investors, and those reluctant to pay taxes on gains, will be very frustrated with this type of market. But, given the hand we were dealt, this may be your only choice to outperform paltry fixed income returns.
Today, money continues to be sucked out of commodities and oil stocks, and is being redistributed into the financials (banks) and consumer discretionary sectors.
Our favorite oil short, the (DUG) Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares, is trading at $41.20, up 47.9% since our purchase at $27.85 in May. For those of you who wish to take some profits, today would be a good day to do so.
We continue to believe crude oil could trade down to the $85-$90/ bbl mark before the sell-off subsides. I don't know if that will actually happen, so we are taking the following action immediately;
In the Dynamic Growth ETF portfolio, we are selling the (DUG) Ultrashort Oil & Gas Proshares immediately at a price of $41.30. Keep the proceeds in cash at this time.
Today's Market:
Today, Labor Department announced the unemployment rate climbed to 6.1 percent last month from 5.7 percent in July. The major job losses came from the manufacturing, service and retail sectors. The economy has lost 605,000 jobs since January.
The official unemployment rate only includes workers who are actively seeking a job, and does not take into account the number of people whose unemployment benefits have expired. If a person does not find work by time their unemployment benefits expire, they are no longer counted in the job numbers as unemployed. So, the real unemployment number may be substantially higher that the 6.1% that the Labor Department is reporting.
In all fairness, the Labor Department must set an expiration date for unemployment benefits. The reason is simple. While many responsible adults will take pride in seeking new employment, others who are not so responsible, will do nothing, and milk the system. Sometimes responsible adults cannot find employment by time their benefits expire, and this is unfortunate. The expiration date was not meant to hurt responsible adults.
