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« Bird's Eye View: Tuesday, September 16, 2008- Market Panic? I Feel like a Kid in a Candy Store | Main | Bird's Eye View: Thursday, September 18, 2008- VIX hits 42: Added ProShares Ultra S&P500 Trust (SSO) to DG ETF Portfolio »

Bird's Eye View: Wednesday, September 17, 2008- The Crescendo of Capitulation is upon us.

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

As you can tell, the news is about as bleak as it gets. I don't believe today is the final decline. Capitulation usually occurs on a high volume sell-off followed by a high volume reversal that closes up shaply on the day.

I have been saying around 10,000 on the DJIA would be a good target before we get some kind of reversal.

Panic is clearly building as investors are flocking to short term T-Bills (with virtually no yield) after the oldest U.S. money-market fund became the first in 14 years to expose investors to losses in money market accounts.

The now, old news, AIG was taken over by the government, but today fears over Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs rippled through the street. Investors are wondering what company might be next to fail.

Clearly, panic is setting in. Tonight, when investors get home, they will be mesmerized by today's 449 point drop. And after a 500 point plus drop on Monday, they will probably pull the plug on their investments giving us the panic low that we have been waiting on.

The VIX Index closed at 36.22. During past market debacles the index topped out above 40. Here are the extreme panic numbers on the VIX going back to 1997;

Nov, 3 1997: VIX 38.22
Sep 8, 1998: VIX 48.06
Sep 17, 2001: VIX 49.35
July 29, 2002: VIX 43.93
Sep 30, 2002: VIX 41.86

At Dow 10000, I will be looking to add to the Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM), and pick up some of the ProShares Ultra S&P500 Trust (SSO) too. The NASDAQ may or may not reach the 2000 mark, but I will be looking to buy the Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) on another big down day.

Keep in mind, all major declines are scary, and usually occur when the news is bad and the economy is in shambles. Investors who buy during these times are betting that one day the economy will get better, and the stock market will rebound. Investing is more about having faith in the capitalistic system than it is being an expert market guru.

In times such as these, it's best to make use of the mute button on your remote control. Don't let the media tell you when to buy or sell, or even which candidate to vote for. Use common sense.


Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.