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« Bird's Eye View: Tuesday, September 23, 2008- "Chicken Little, Chicken Little, The Sky is Falling!" | Main | Bird's Eye View: Thursday, September 25, 2008- " Deal, or No Deal?" »

Bird's Eye View: Wednesday, September 24, 2008- "Hey Insiders; Talk to the Hand!"

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

A story broke this morning on the financial channels that Lowes (LOW) held a analyst meeting and said the company expects earnings to rise 18 percent to 23 percent annually, on average, from 2010 to 2013.

That's wonderful, and given that time frame, I don't doubt it. So, based on these projections, I'm wondering why the insiders are exercising options and selling the stock.

On September 9th, Chairman and CEO, Robert Niblock exercised options on 152,000 shares at $22.00, turned right around and sold 147,452 of those shares at $28.25.

On August 27th, Niblock exercised options on 170,000 @ $22.85, and again, on the same day, sold all 170,000 @ $24.59. This was only a $1.74 higher than what Mr. Niblock the exercise price was. Given this little tidbit of information, it is very clear that the Chairman and CEO of Lowes (LOW) does not see his stock or the housing market returning to the glory days anytime soon.

Here's my point. These insiders talk out of both sides of their mouths. My mom use to say "do as I say, don't do as I do". This didn't sound quite right for some reason. I think to set the right example for investors, Mr. Niblock needs to tell investors, " do as I do, not as I say".

Hey Lowes insiders, talk to the hand! If you don't want to own your stock, then neither do I.

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This is a small example of how insiders get rich. I see it everyday. See, Wall Street set up this compensation agreement with insiders many moons ago. The conflicts of interests between insiders and analysts have existed for many years. Analysts pump a stock, the little guy buys, and the insiders cash it. Doesn't seem fair, does it?

The Rest of the Story

As congress continues to jawbone with the Treasury and the Fed, you need to keep in mind that they are just trying to portray themselves as prudent stewards of our money. We know better though. In the end, they will pass the rescue package to save their re-election campaigns.

In the meantime, as congress debates "doing the right thing", lets take a look at how many politicians took money from Fannie and Freddie as they were doing the wrong thing;

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The entire bailout package is a charade. It reminds of the movie "Miracle on 34th Street" (1947) when the judge is meeting with his political adviser in his chambers. The judge was getting ready to rule that there was no Santa Claus.

This is what the trusted adviser had to say to the judge;

"All right, you go back and tell them that the New York State Supreme Court rules there's no Santa Claus. It's all over the papers. The kids read it and they don't hang up their stockings. Now what happens to all the toys that are supposed to be in those stockings? Nobody buys them. The toy manufacturers are going to like that; so they have to lay off a lot of their employees, union employees. Now you got the CIO and the AF of L against you and they're going to adore you for it and they're going to say it with votes.

Oh, and the department stores are going to love you too and the Christmas card makers and the candy companies. Ho ho. Henry, you're going to be an awful popular fella. And what about the Salvation Army? Why, they got a Santa Claus on every corner, and they're taking a fortune.

But you go ahead Henry, you do it your way. You go on back in there and tell them that you rule there is no Santy Claus. Go on. But if you do, remember this: you can count on getting just two votes, your own and that district attorney's out there".

William Frawley played the judges political adviser;

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Gene Lockhart played the judge.

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The Bottom-line:

Not passing the bailout package would be political suicide. I'll bet many trusted advisers of those in congress are urging their political clients to vote, yes. If and when it does pass, the stock market may take off like a rocket.

And to the politicians who insist on more worthless debates over the bailout package, get this;

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