"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

For years-many years- I have said that the stock market isn't for everyone. Investors (??) that think the stock market should always go up have no business in it. Down markets, bear markets are all a part of the game. The stock market is no place for whiners.

Personally, I really enjoy down markets and bear markets because it gives me a chance to level the playing field. History tells us that bear markets-even vicious bear markets are wonderful opportunities for investors that can look past a current crisis. Make no mistake, we are in a crisis. Make no mistake, one day the crisis will end.

Select Hedge Fund managers and Wall Street whippersnappers (Born after 1972-74) have never experienced severe economic turmoil. In short, they "aim, fire, and shoot" when selling stocks, and can't see the forest for the trees.

This crisis will end. In fact, it will probably end sooner than most think. The big story of the day is England, Canada, the ECB, Sweden, Switzerland, and the U.S. cut global interest rates across the board. Also, the credit markets will receive a well deserved lube job as the Fed injected money into the commercial paper market. The other big rumor is the Treasury will be putting some of the bailout money to work soon, and the market to market accounting standards will be lifted.

On the contrarian side (see yesterday's journal post), Jim Cramer is bearish. This is music to any contrarian's ears!

A perfect set up for today would have the DJIA selling down below 9000, scaring the heck out of investors. At this point the little guy panics and sells while the rich guys fly in and scoop up bargains. The market reverses course, and heads higher to close up strong for the day.

Since the little guy is already scared, and many have already panicked, it may not take that drastic of a sell-off.

Here's what the DJIA did during the bear market phase of 2000-2002;

High: January 10, 2000- DJIA 11,750
Low: September 30, 2002- DJIA 7,460- down -4290 points or -36.5%

Here's what the DJIA has done during this bear market phase which began a year ago today;

High: October 8, 2007- DJIA 14,198
Low: Today (at 10:39cst)- DJIA 9213- down -4984 points or -35.1%

During the 2000 bear phase, it took the Dow 33 months to drop -36.5%. During this bear market phase (Oct 2007-Oct 2008), the DJIA dropped almost the same amount (-35.1%) in just 12 months.

The news media has been interviewing investors who are saying they lost X amount, won't be able to retire, etc, etc. These are all the things you hear near panic bottoms.

After a strong rally, expect the market to settle down within a trading range. Confidence in the market and the future has been severely tarnished, and it will take some time for emotions to heal.

The trend during the healing process will begin with a series of higher highs, and higher lows. The good news is one year after the last three recessions the DJIA was up on average 27.7%. One year after the last five recessions the DJIA was up on average 28.6%.

New bull markets begin a quarter or two before the U.S. economy bottoms. Keeping an eye on the forest, and not the trees, is what separates the men from the boys.

One year ago today, the bear market officially began. Does the bear end today???