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« Dynamic Growth: Monday, May 11, 2009- Briefing | Main | Bird's Eye View: Thursday, May 14, 2009- "This is like deja vu all over again" »

Bird's Eye View: Tuesday, May 12, 2009- Not Done Yet...

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

Did today's -100++ decline scare you? Get you to think a new leg down was beginning? Well, not so fast.

Evidence for the bears has not yet reached its crescendo. Optimism toward stocks does not evaporate that quickly. Positive (actually, less negative) news from the economy has investors moving cash off of the sidelines, and putting it to work in the stock market. Afterall, something has to be worth more than zero.

The weekly AAII and Investors Intelligence surveys now show a split between bulls and bears. As may continues to mature, the survey numbers may actually tilt more toward the bulls.

The latest AAII data shows bulls at 44% and bears at 33%, while the Investors Intelligence survey shows 40% bulls and 32% bears.

My guess is this pullback, any any pullback prior to S&P 950-1000 will be limited until investors over-commit to stocks. Any pullback off recent highs tells me that the likely next phase would be one of consolidation, not a reversal.

The market has the support of less bad news. When you combine this with China appearing to have a handle on its economic stimulus, a short term growth pattern seems to be re-emerging.

Stability appears to be emerging on the jobs front (less bad) as well as the housing market. New growth in housing will be light years away, but at least the decline shows signs of slowing.

Another sign of recovery is rising Treasury Yields and Commodity prices. This tells us that investors feel the crisis appears to have past, and investors are becoming less risk-averse.

As for now, I am not convinced we are "Done Yet".

Disclaimer—This is for informational purposes only and is in no way a solicitation or an offer to sell securities. I am a registered investment advisor, but only provide solicited advice to clients of our firm in states where we are registered or where an exemption or exclusion from such registration exists. nothing on this website should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are any indication of future performance. carefully assess your own risk tolerance and goals before investing.