
"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey
To access the "Weekly Briefing", go to the "Newsletter" link at the top of the page and sign in by establishing your own username and password.
Several new features have been added including a list of our Top Growth Stocks, a list of Under Appreciated Value Stocks, and enhancements to our ETF and Fidelity Sector Fund portfolios.
Unless we are headed toward a socialistic society here in the US, I believe CitiGroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC) hold substantial appreciation potential for long term investors. The big question of course is can you tune out the noise, and flash forward your thinking 5-10 years.
Here's my thought process;
CitiGroup (C)
CitiGroup is huge. They have a global footprint that provides a wide range of financial services to consumers and corporate customers in more than 100 countries. This being said, I believe one of two events could occur. In my opinion, the second event has a greater probability of happening than the first.
1) Citi eventually restructures and works they way through their exposure to risky assets, and deteriorating credit problems internationally as well as here in the US. Given the extent of these problems, it's a 50/50 bet as to whether they can regain the earnings power it once had.
If CitiGroup had been a regional bank, it would have probably been seized by the Federal Government. Given the politics behind the curtain, and all the powerful players involved, Citi has been saved from this embarrassment, and is probably being restructured to be acquired by someone like Goldman Sachs who was allowed to become a bank holding company during the credit crisis.
Here is the Goldman Sachs connection;
Goldman Sachs is a powerful force in government, as well as Wall Street. Many of its former employees have secured top level jobs in government, politics, and corporations around the globe. Their ability to pull strings, put people in high places, and crush their competition is truly amazing to watch. And, they always take care of their own.
2) Goldman Sachs (or someone else) buys CitiGroup
- In the case of CitiGroup, former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulsen was once Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs. Former Citigroup advisor, Robert Rubin- who was paid $62 million in fees between 2004 and 2007- was also a former Treasury Secretary, and another chairman at Goldman Sachs.
- In October 2008, when the credit crisis was in full bloom, news broke that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen, tried to get Citigroup and Goldman Sachs to merge.
- Later that month, the Financial Times broke a story that Goldman Sachs CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, did indeed call Citigroup CEO, Vikram Pandit, to discuss a merger.
What I believe happened, and I have no solid evidence to support this, is Blankfein and Pandit were merely talking to lay the groundwork for an eventual merger. CitiGroup needed to make several strategic moves to clear the way before a deal could get done.
-First, Goldman had no interest in owning an operating a retail brokerage operation. The risks were high, and the rewards were low. So, Citigroup sold 51% of Smith Barney to Morgan Stanley.
In a twist of irony, I read today where Sen. John McCain introduced legislation that would ban investment banks, and commercial banks from engaging in retail brokerage activities.
-Secondly, CitiGroup had to be removed from the DJIA (Dow 30 stocks) so an eventual merger could be looked at as a strategic alliance, and not a takeover of a global financial powerhouse. CitiGroup is no longer a Dow stock.
- Thirdly, if Goldman bought CitiGroup, it would wipe out a big competitor. When former Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulsen, provided a portion of the TARP funds to CitiGroup and not Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers, he was essentially wiping out the competition for Goldman Sachs.
- Forth, In August 2009, the CEO's of Citibank, N.A., and Latin America bought 1 million shares each at 43.41, and $3.21 respectively. Other purchases have taken place as well.
- Fifth, is hedge fund manager John Paulson's humongous purchase of CitiGroup stock. Paulson bought 300 million shares of Citigroup, while selling all its shares in Goldman Sachs.
For those familiar with what happens to company shares during a buyout know that most of the time the shares of the company being acquired goes up, while the shares of the buyer goes down.
- The sixth and final point is CitiGroup's is trying to return TARP money. While it's being reported that it won't be easy, the deal will eventually get done.
Because of the points made above, we are adding CitiGroup to the Dynamic Growth Under Loved, and Under Appreciated Stock List (Value).
Checkout the other Goldman Sachs Connections and Alumni
Ed Liddy of AIG, former Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs.
John Thain, former CEO of Merrill Lynch (now BAC) was co-President at Goldman Sachs.
Robert Steel, interim CEO of Wachovia (now Wells Fargo) was a former Goldman Vice Chairman.
Neal Kashkari, head of the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), VP at Goldman Sachs.
Robert Zoellick, head of the World Bank, was a managing director of Goldman Sachs.
Mario Draghai, who is leading the European Union response to the crisis is another Vice President of Goldman Sachs.
Jon Corzine, former New Jersey Governor, former Chairman and co-CEO of Goldman Sachs.
I'm just follwing the money. It's amazing where it will take you.

