"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

The weekly newsletter briefing is for members only, and was posted to the website on Monday. To access the "Weekly Briefing", go to the "Newsletter" link at the top of the page and sign in by establishing your own username and password.

Like yesterday, sellers tried to take the market down but were unable to gain any traction.

This morning a report released by ADP estimated the economy lost 84,000 jobs in December, the smallest decline since March 2008. The ISM non-manufacturing index showed that the services industry had expanded for the third time in the last four months.

Despite the rosy news, several items continue to concern us. We must see more evidence that the economy is "really" improving. Here's what's bothering us;

1) The consumer, in our opinion, is the real driver behind a sustainable recovery. We are seeing personal incomes, as well as other sources of incomes, like interest and dividends falling.

2) Unemployment is still very high, and we will have to wait and see if the temporary lift in jobs was due to hiring workers for the holiday's. Also, the labor force continues to get hit with furloughs and part-time jobs, while others are seeing their wages and salaries cut.

3) Consumers are shifting from credit cards to debit cards, and Visa reported that consumers used debit cards more frequently than credit cards for the first time ever. This shows us that a fundamental shift has taken place in the spending habits of consumers.

4) Preliminary reports show that 2009 Christmas sales rose to 3.6% from 2008’s when sales fell 3.4%. Oddly, much of 2009’s rise came from a 15.5% increase in internet sales.

5) The deleveraging of financial sector is hurting consumers access to credit. Credit card limits have been reduced or totally eliminated, auto loans have declined, and home equity lines of credit are almost a thing of the past.

6) The government has already anticipated another economic decline. Currently, the House of Representatives is working on a $154 billion jobs package. $75 billion is slated for infrastructure projects such as highways and transit, water projects, affordable housing and school construction and renovation. If the economy is truly recovering, why would they need to do this?

So, you tell me. Recovery? or temporary recovery which includes a bear market rally?