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February 2010 Archives

February 4, 2010

Dynamic Growth: Thursday, February 4, 2010- Flash Alert

We are adding another beaten down blue chip to the Under Loved, and Under Appreciated Stock List (Value) portfolio today. The stock currently sports a 6.51% dividend, and shares a monopoly status with another royal blue chip.

For further details, go to the "Newsletter" link at the top of the page and sign in by establishing your own username and password.

February 5, 2010

Dynamic Growth: Friday, February 5, 2010- Verizon Added to Buy List

Yesterday, we added telephone giant Verizon Communications (VZ) to the Under Loved, and Under Appreciated Stock List (Value) portfolio, with a buy limit of $29.

We added Verizon through the Flash Alert area in the "Newsletter" portion of the website. If you want to get these timely ideas, go to the "Newsletter" link at the top of the page, sign up by establishing your own username and password.

Verizon is a classic Under Loved, and Under Appreciated Stock that you hope one day will fall into your lap. Like any stock, you have to wait on the right entry price.

Verizon has all the characteristics I look for in a great investment. Also, I've found that companies who dominate their industries, or at least compete aggressively year in and year out, have a higher predictability rate for earnings growth and success. Verizon has a dominate business that is very predictable.

The company is a dominant provider for wire-line, wireless, and broadband communications. Formerly known as one of seven Baby Bells, Bell Atlantic changed its name to Verizon after it acquired GTE in June 2000. The company made other strategic moves by acquiring MCI and Alltel, and forming alliances with Vodafone's AirTouch.

When you look at the numbers, the company is even more impressive.

Verizon has over 91 million wireless customers, and picked up 13 million of those subscribers after the Alltel merger closed in January. The just company added more than 2.2 million new net subscribers in the fourth quarter of 2009 by taking market share from its competitors.

Taking about a cash cow, the company generates on average $52 per user, which translates into a quarterly cash generation of $4.732 billion per month. With this cash, Verizon increased its dividend by 3%, bringing the current dividend per share to $1.90 per share, or 6.51%.

Despite a terrible recession, the company has managed to grow their dividend. In fact, since the economy began to weaken in 2007, Verizon has managed to raise their dividend from $1.65 in 2007, to $1.90, an increase of 15.1%.

Stop and think for a moment. Everywhere you go you see someone using a cell phone. In the past, cell phones were a luxury item. Today, they are part of our everyday lives. The younger generations, teens, and young adults, would rather do without food, than do without a cell phone.

The dominance of cell phones is so wide spread that city, state, and federal governments are trying to pass laws to limit their use while consumers drive. What does that tell you?

Wireless phones are not only an extremely popular item in the US, but around the globe. Many US household now have cell phones for everyone in the family. Corporations now require cell phones for all their employees. Since time is money, cell phones have allowed corporate America to become more efficient. They will never have to worry about missing an important call, or making a timely call to an important client.

In short, the time is now right to buy Verizon !

February 9, 2010

Bird's Eye View: Tuesday, February 9, 2010- Market & Economy Controlled by Globalist Agenda

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

Pick a subject, any subject, and you'll see that money, influence, and the Globalist agenda's always take center stage.

Health-care for all

Having been involved (somewhat) in congressional campaigns, I can tell you that your elected officials do not work for you. Some do, but most of them don't.

As was the case during the Clinton years, health-care reform is more about getting votes from common folk, and less about truly helping them.

Congress works for people who give them the most money. The health care lobby doesn't want reform because they can't charge huge fees for insurance, medical equipment, drugs, and diagnostic tests. Doctors do not want reform because they want to make tons of money, own 2-3 homes or condos, and drive expensive cars. The law lobby doesn't want reform because they want continue to sue doctors, and make millions from lawsuits.

True, and honest, universal heath-care would be a great thing for humanity. Unfortunately, we do not live in a system that cares about truth and honesty. We live in a system that cares about money.

Global Thoughts

When I was in high school, I was told that the goal of communism was "World Domination". Oh, really?

When I look at the policies being promoted by our elected officials, it seems like they are being directed to achieve the same results that was once the goal of communist nations like Russia and China.

Here are a few examples;

Since the creation of the United Nations, the US military has been slowly transformed into a global military police force.

The US military is not the same Red, White, and Blue organization that our fathers and grandfathers once severed. The US military recruits young (mainly poor) Americans on the premise that they are fighting for America, defending our freedoms, and supporting and defending the constitution of the United States from all enemies foreign and domestic.

Men and women joining the national guard are being lied to. Thousands of National Guard soldiers are being mislead, and are being deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan which amounts to nothing more than backdoor draft.

This being said, American military forces have not been engaged in a constitutionally fought war since WWII. In fact, since WWII, our military has been directed to fight unconstitutional wars in Korea, Vietnam, Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Clearly, the US military is now being used as a tool for the United Nations which seeks to force nations around the globe into a New World Order. American forces have been used to both put people in power and take people out of power all over the world. The CIA was responsible for the rise to power of Osama Bin Laden, the Shah of Iran, and even Sadam Hussein.

Our new President, "Iraq" Obama, campaigned that he would stop the war in Iraq and bring our troops home. Obama was put in office by the New World Order gang, and as he continues to do exactly what he is told, his poll numbers continue to fall.

The media is a tool used by the Globalists, the New World Order gang, and Wall Street. They are, after all, one in the same.

Here is a great video from the 1976 movie "Network", with words spoken by Howard Beale.


February 10, 2010

Bird's Eye View: Wednesday, February 10, 2010- How to make money in a trading range market...

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

I must start off with a "Rest of the Story" piece that you will not see on CNBC, Bloomberg, or the FOX financial channel. This is the story about how Indymac was sold to a Goldman Sachs alumni, as well as John Paulsen, and George Soros. These guys are all part of "the club" (which you are not a member) and are making a killing with your tax dollars- Play Video

The Dow Jones rallied more than 150 points Tuesday after reports circulated that European Union was close to an agreement to help Greece with its debt problems. The day before the much watched index closed below 10,000 for the first time in three months.

In the pre-market, stocks were indicating a higher open, but gave way to selling pressure as investors feared that the problems in Greece may not be an isolated case.

Watching the happenings in Greece, and hearing rumors about Spain, makes me wonder how the seemingly intelligent countries can get suckered in by the financial cancer spewed by Wall Street. Obviously, Wall Street has a long reaching arm, one that is inherently evil, and should be amputated.

We remain cautious, and don't buy into the bull market propaganda delivered by Wall Street to the media. In environments such as these, you have to be a more active investor. Buy and hold simply does not work, and it hasn't for a very long time.

When buying stocks, you are essentially trading along side the New York investment banks. They will be buying during big declines, and selling into big rallies. A significant percentage of the quarterly profits derived by the investment banks is from trading. This should tell you something.

I'm not saying there are not stocks you can hold for the longer term. There are. Our Under Loved, and Under Appreciated Stock List (Value) has a great list of beaten down stocks that stand to do very well in the years ahead. Of course, you must have a 3-5 year time horizon, or more.

In the short, and intermediate term, the economy will take much longer to bounce back than what you are being told. The aftershocks of the financial crisis and real estate crash will take many years to subside.

You can forget about a smooth, and self-sustaining recovery. It's not going to happen.

Unemployment will be a drag for at least another year or two. Home inventories will remain high, credit will be scarce, and housing prices will be slow to recover.

I realize this news will make the "Housewives of Orange County",or any other person who tries to imitate "The Lifestyle's of the Rich and Famous" very angry, but that's just the way things are.

Unless you are truly rich ($10 million net-worth and above), I suggest you watch your money very closely. You can make money in stocks, but you've got to be more nimble. Here are a few ideas you might want to consider;

Trading Range Strategies

1) Buy beaten down stocks with dominate market share, and improving fundamentals. pay attention to the RSI (Relative Strength) numbers when buying and selling. Buy when the RSI on a stock is around 30 or lower. Sell a stock, or sell a call when the RSI is around 70 or higher.
2) Look for stocks that have raised their dividends despite the economic and market debacle.
3) During a big pullback in the market (8-10%++), sell puts on stocks you want to own, at prices you would want to own them.
4) During a big market rally, take profits, or sell calls 10-20% above the market price.

February 12, 2010

Bird's Eye View: Friday, February 12, 2010- Buying AT&T (T), Moving Conoco (COP)...

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

Please Note: The weekly newsletter briefing is for members only. To access
the "Weekly Briefing", go to the "Newsletter" link at the top of the page
and sign in by establishing your own username and password.

We are adding telephone giant AT&T (T) to the Under-loved, and Under
Appreciated Stock portfolio today with a buy limit of $25.

I recommended AT&T back in 2004 at the World Money Show in Orlando. In
2004, stock was at $25/ share with a 5% dividend. I recommended selling the
stock in February 2007 at $37, for a gain of 48% (not counting the
dividend).

Today, the stock is hovering around $25 again, but the dividend is now
around 6.6%.

We are making one additional change. We are moving Conoco-Phillips (COP-
buy limit $55) from the Top Stock Portfolio (Momentum), to the Under-loved,
and Under Appreciated Stock (Value) since its characteristics are more fit
for value investors, rather than momentum investors.

February 18, 2010

Bird's Eye View: Thursday, February 18, 2010- Its not what you know...

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"You know what the news is-- in a minute, you're going to hear the rest of the story"- Paul Harvey

I have seen some strange things happen over the past few days.

- A Bomb Explodes At JPMorgan Chase Office In Greece- Article

The question here is why? Are some in Greece blaming their financial crisis on the investment banks? Here in the US, the financial crisis can be blamed on Wall Street bankers that created exotic mortgage investments such as structured investment vehicle (SIV) through their shadow banking system.

The terrible thing of course is many innocent people were hurt or killed.

-Warren Buffett interviews former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson at the Omaha Chamber of Commerce meeting in Omaha.- Article

Once again, this is odd. Warren Buffett doesn't interview anyone. We must ask why?

It has long been rumored that Buffett is friends with members of "The Club" on Wall Street.

If you read Buffett's latest book, "Snowball", you can clearly see that he has friends in high places, and gets some insight that the average person doesn't.

His latest purchase of Burlington Northern (BNI) clearly doesn't jive with his investment parameters (ROE of 15, and predictable earnings for 10 years, etc) when picking stocks. Instead, he knows a lot more about the push for open borders and globalism than the average investor.

Buffett's private preferred stock investments General Electric and Goldman Sachs (something you and I couldn't get) are also sweet deals that are unexplainable. I'm sure GE or Goldman could have offered those deals to the public, and had many takers.

clearly, and this has been the case for quite some time, there are basically two investment worlds. Those that have the knowledge ahead of time. And those who get the knowledge after the fact.

Talking about knowledge ahead of time, we have still heard nothing about the investors that heavily shorted United Airlines, and American Airlines just prior to the 9-11 attacks on the World Trade Center in NY.

To quote 60 Minutes from Sept. 19, "Sources tell CBS News that the afternoon before the attack, alarm bells were sounding over unusual trading in the U.S. stock options market."

- UAL put options jumped 90 times (not 90 percent) above normal between Sept. 6 and Sept.10, and 285 times higher than average on the Thursday before the attack. (CBS News, Sept. 26).

- American Airlines put options jumped 60 times (not 60 percent) above normal on the day before the attacks. (CBS News, Sept. 26).

In investing, more often than you would think, its not what you know, its what you don't know.

Dynamic Growth Investments

We issued a "Flash E-Mail Alert" yesterday to subscribers. By the way, the service is still free.


The changes are as folllows;

Top 10 ETF's:

New Sells:

IYW: iShares DJ US Technology Sector Index Fund- take profits, hold
proceeds in cash.

DBA: Powershares DB Agriculture Fund- take loss, hold proceeds in cash.

Top 10 Fidelity Sector Funds:

New Sells:

FSPTX: Technology Portfolio- take profits, hold proceeds in cash.

Top Stock Portfolio (Momentum):

New Sells:

BBY: Best Buy- take loss, hold proceeds in cash.
OXY: Occidental Petroleum- getting out even, hold proceeds in cash.
AAPL: Apple Computer- small gain, hold proceeds in cash.

New Buys:

F: Ford Motor Company- buy limit $12
STX: Seagate Technology- buy limit $21

Under Loved, and Under Appreciated Stock List (Value):

New Sells:

ISCA: International Speedway Corp- big insider selling yesterday.
RIMM: Research in Motion- take profits

That's all for now. I have some new buys on my radar screen, but will wait
for the market to pullback before announcing them.

A Heads Up

I have been in contact with the good people at Main Street Investor (www.mainstreetinvestor.com) to start a newsletter called "Undervalued Stocks with John Mugarian."

I am a true blue value investor, and an affiliation with the Main Street Investor would put me back in the public eye like I was at Phillips Publishing.

Continue reading "Bird's Eye View: Thursday, February 18, 2010- Its not what you know..." »

February 26, 2010

Dynamic Growth: Friday, February 26, 2020- Flash Alert

We are selling, and taking profits in all our investments in the "Top
Stock Portfolio (Momentum)" effective immediately.

Being a tried and true value investor, I realize that the party in
momentum stocks can end abruptly. When it does, the ride down is very
painful.

Currently, the "Top Stock Portfolio" has an overall gain of 5.6%. The
"Underloved and Undervalued Portfolio (Value) has performed much better,
and in my opinion is much safer.

Going forward, we will focus our attention on the "Value" stocks, and
eliminate the "Top Stock (Momentum) Portfolio" as one of our portfolios.

Here is how each stock has done individually;

CTSH + 11.8%
CAG + 11.2%
MRVL +7.9%
PCLN +3.1%
CVX +0.5%
F + 3.5%
STX +1.3%

Yours for Dynamic Growth,

John Mugarian
www.johnmugarian.com
www.mainstreetinvestor.com

Disclaimer***

Investing involves substantial risk. Neither the Editor, nor the publisher, or any of their respective affiliates make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using this
e-mail or the Newsletter. While past performance may be analyzed, past performance should not be considered indicative of future performance. No investor should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. To the maximum extent permitted by law, the Editor, the publisher and their respective affiliates disclaim any and all liability in the event any information, commentary, analysis, opinions,
advice and/or recommendations prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or result in any investment or other losses.

The commentary, analysis, opinions, advice and recommendations represent the personal and subjective views of the Editor, and are subject to change at any time without notice.

The information provided is obtained from sources which the Editor believes to be reliable. However, the Editor has not independently verified or otherwise investigated all such information. Neither the Editor, the publisher, or any of their respective affiliates guarantees the accuracy or completeness of any such information.

About February 2010

This page contains all entries posted to John Mugarian's Dynamic Growth in February 2010. They are listed from oldest to newest.

January 2010 is the previous archive.

March 2010 is the next archive.

Many more can be found on the main index page or by looking through the archives.

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